Pacquiao Vs. Broner – Betting Preview: Predictions & Picks

pac man vs broner face off

In what is easily the most anticipated fight of the new year, boxing legend, Manny Pacquiao will take on the challenger, Adrien Broner, for the WBA Welterweight Championship. The contest pits one of the sport’s greatest fighters against a controversial former world champion in Broner. The fight will take place this Saturday, January 19 at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada with coverage beginning at 9 PM EST. Pacquiao and Broner are expected to make their way to the ring for the main event around 11:30 PM EST.

It will cost $75 and can be purchased and viewed on a variety of platforms. Not only will it be available through telecom companies through PPV purchase, but through the Showtime app on Xbox, Apple Mobile, Android TV, and Roku devices. It can also be streamed online and watched live through the Amazon Fire TV Stick. If you’re looking to watch the fight as part of a night out – you’re also in luck. It will be available at a variety of bars and restaurants throughout the country and in some cases, at movie theatres.

Manny Pacquiao – Boxing Legend

It’s hard to believe, but Manny Pacquiao is scheduled to fight his 70th professional boxing match. Pacquiao is not only a legend in the boxing ring but is a recording artist and politician in the Philippines. He is rumored to be eyeing a presidential run after his boxing career ends, as well. Pacquiao is now 40 years old but is still a formidable opponent. He has a long list of accomplishments throughout his career, including world titles in seven different divisions and a Hall of Fame resume. However, he has lost four times since 2012 (albeit some controversial), with each defeat damaging his legacy.

Still, Pac Man’s longevity is impressive. He’s still one of the top boxers in the sport even as he heads into his 40s. And his last fight, he notched a victory via TKO against rugged Argentinean fighter, Lucas Matthysse in July of 2018. He will look to add another win to his excellent boxing career against Broner on Saturday. Currently, his career mark stands at 60-7-2 with 39 KOs.

Adrien Broner – ‘The Problem’

Broner has been nicknamed ‘The Problem’ for his in-ring ability, but also likely for his issues outside the ring. He has always had issues with his conditioning. And, well, he’s been arrested, a lot. Still, the raw talent is still there, if he puts in the work. With an opponent like Pacquiao – it’s going to be a short fight if he hasn’t.

The most recent common opponent between these two fighters is Jessie Vargas, who Broner drew against and Pac Man knocked out. The 2018 draw with Vargas was Broner’s last fight. However, the 29-year-old has not recorded a victory since a 2017 bout against Adrian Granados after losing to Mikey Garcia in the same year. Broner is 6-3-1 over his last ten fights and has knocked out his opponent in just 33% of these bouts. In 38 fights, he has amassed a 33-1-3 record with 24 knockouts.

Pacquiao Vs. Broner – Fight Odds

Pac Man, although up there in age, is the firm favorite in this one. The odds have quite a bit since Pacquiao opened at -222 and Broner at +161. Now, we have Pacquiao at -300 and Broner around +250 at most betting sites. Shopping odds will be valuable regardless of which fighter you’re looking wager on in this bout. Pacquiao can be found at -275 and Broner at +260.

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Pacquiao Vs. Broner – Who Will Win?

Pacquiao doesn’t have much to prove in this fight regarding ability. He’s already a boxing legend. However, he has eyed a rematch against Floyd Mayweather Jr. for quite some time. His loss against ‘Money’ in 2015 was a low point in his career that he wishes to avenge.

PacMan has stated that Mayweather “wants to come out of retirement to box him” after the two met in Japan of last year to discuss a rematch. Mayweather has mentioned several times that he is retired, but we all know that he can’t resist a massive payday. Much of Manny’s motivation coming into this fight could be that he wants a rematch with Floyd. Still, that fight is a ways away, if it happens at all. On Saturday, boxing fans and the fighters alike will be focused on Pacquiao and Broner.

However, Broner may be decent practice for Pacquiao if he is to fight Mayweather once again. He is a cautious fighter, one that relies on defense and counter punching, instead of the all-out attack that we see from the Filipino fighter. Manny’s power, even in his advanced age, is not something to be questioned. In his last fight against Matthysse, he knocked him down twice. It was the first time Matthysse was knocked down twice in his career. PacMan has scored knockdowns in 3 out of his last four fights.

broner on press conferenceHe will undoubtedly be going for a knockout against Broner. And, it is likely that he will be chasing him around the ring due to the challenger’s defensive style. ‘The Problem’ is not a traditional power puncher, but he is still an extremely talented fighter. He has a slight height advantage with him standing at 5’6” compared to Pac’s 5’5 ½” and much bigger edge when it comes to reach. He has two inches on Manny in that regard, at 69” compared to 67”.

Though, it’s still tough to say that Broner has the physical advantage in this fight. Pacquiao’s longevity is something to be admired. He’s also fought far less per year than Broner, who averages 3.5 fights per year compared to Pac Man’s 1.9. He is still plenty fresh at 40 years old. Broner has not endeared himself to fans, boxing pundits, or anyone else. It’s not a stretch to say this guy is extremely unlikeable. He even told some Filipino Pacquiao supporters in a recent press conference that “I got a cat for you for dinner” and “I got some sautéed German Sheperd for you in the back.” Yikes.

Even with all that said, we can’t discount someone’s talent because they don’t seem like a nice guy. I do not doubt that Pacquiao is extremely motivated in this fight. He’s determined and ready, and he has the experience to win. But, Broner is not a fighter to be underestimated, and his defensive style is precisely the type of fighter that could give Pacquiao trouble. He’s also tough and durable. And, he is fighting a guy that is 11 years older than him. There will be plenty of opportunities for counter punches that may spell trouble for the boxing legend.

If Broner picks his spots well, then he could easily steal rounds to make this interesting. A knockout for the challenger is unlikely, but him getting a decision or this fight ending in a draw I do think is more likely than some consider. If we enter +250 into a betting calculator, we can see that those odds have an implied probability of 28.57%. That means, Broner only has to win this fight 30 percent of the time for our bet to be profitable.

If you grabbed Pac Man at -222 when this fight was announced – congrats, you have a great bet. But where are the odds are now have me leaning towards Broner. Pacquiao is well-liked, and everyone wants to see him fight Floyd once again. He is an international superstar, and it’s a feel-good story. Still, that is all it is. Pacquiao’s following and people wanting to see a rematch may have moved their odds a little too far in his favor. This can happen in boxing betting markets with high-profile fighters. A fighter as talented a Broner deserves a little more credit in odds markets. He’s certainly the underdog, but at this price – I like his chances.

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Joseph Falchetti

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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