Thursday Night Football – Week 14 – Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Free Preview and Betting Prediction
The Raiders head to Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday Night to take on the Chiefs in a game that is critical for the balance in the AFC West and general playoff seeding. These two division rivals faced off earlier in the year in California. Kansas City won that game 26-10 on October 26th.
The odds opened with the Chiefs -3, but that has moved to -3.5 as of this writing. Betting action has been mostly even, which suggests that high volume sharp action on Kansas City has moved the odds to -3.5. The total opened at 47 points but has moved to 45.5 at most bookmakers. This is despite 60 percent of wagers coming in on the over.
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Many expected Oakland to compete for a playoff spot this season, but even the most optimistic Raider fan couldn’t expect Oakland to lead the AFC in record. Yet, that’s exactly where they are today. Oakland improved to 10-2 after dispatching the Buffalo Bills at home by a score of 38-24.
Unfortunately for Oakland, they’re in one of the toughest divisions in football and already dropped a game to Kansas City earlier in the year. If they lose this game, the Chiefs would be in the driver’s seat to take down the AFC West.
The Chiefs – Dominant Again
Say what you want about Andy Reid, but the guy wins football games. His vanilla offense frustrates fans, but it’s producing victories. The defense is also one of the better units in the league.
KC won a hard-fought game last week at Atlanta, winning 29-28 to improve their record to 9-3 on the year. The Falcons were going for two after taking the lead 28-27, but safety Eric Berry intercepted it and ran back their two-point late in the fourth quarter to win the game for Chiefs 29-27.
If you were looking for a team to bet on the Raiders, it’s here, as the move to +3.5 will give you an extra half-point on a critical number. However, that’s also going against the market, which long-term is going to be -EV move.
And to be fair, it’s not a great spot for Oakland. Kanas City’s defense is dominant at home, and they’re returning wide receiver Jeremy Maclin on the outside. The Raiders defense is an extreme weak link, but something they have been able to hide due to their offensive prowess and strong running game.
Kansas City doesn’t have to run a high-powered offense against Oakland to have success. Their short pass, run-first game plan should do just fine in putting up points against their weak defense. The Raiders will have a much tougher time moving the ball against the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs -3.5