Thursday Night Football Week 5 NFL Picks – Colts Vs. Patriots Prediction
Whenever I see the Indianapolis Colts taking on the New England Patriots, I can only smile remembering those brutal battles between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for more than a decade. When Manning took his talents to Denver, Andrew Luck supposed to keep the rivalry alive, but it hasn’t quite lived to the expectations.
Luck and the Colts will try to seek their first win together against the Patriots after failing the previous five times miserably. The game that opens the NFL week 5 will be at Gillette Stadium, in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The oddsmakers made the New England Patriots 10.5-point favorites at Sportsbetting.ag. It moved half a point down, and now it is at 10-points. The game’s total opened at 53.5 and it’s currently at 51 points. Odds below are from SportsBetting.ag. Deposit today for a 50% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 on your first deposit.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Predictions
Spread: Patriots -10
Money line: Indianapolis (+405) vs. New England (-500)
Game Total: 51
Date: Thursday, October 4th, 2018
Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts
TV: FOX / NFL Network
What’s the latest Colts betting form to face the Patriots?
The Indianapolis Colts have shown me a better side than I anticipated during the first month of the season. Even currently sitting at 1-3 straight up, the bar was so low, they have looked better than expected. They have been in all games, losing the last two by a combined of seven points. Now, last season they didn’t have to lose. But head coach Frank Reich decided to go for it at their own half on a 4th and 4 during overtime. He said it was the right call. It wasn’t. Let along in a divisional matchup against the Houston Texans.
This week will be the first time this season the Colts are double-digit underdogs, and rightfully so. With Andrew Luck under center Indianapolis has lost by an average 24.6 points differential when facing the Patriots. They have taken beatings of 35, 22 and 38 points. Even in the playoffs. The good news for Indy is all those five losses were under head coach Chuck Pagano. He’s no longer with the team, and that will ensure us the Colts won’t show as unprepared as they did in the past.
Short week games work for Indianapolis as well. The Colts are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games. This time they will have to go at it without wide receiver playmaker TY Hilton. He was listed as doubtful to play against the Patriots due to a hamstring injury suffered Sunday against the Texans. Hilton leads the team with 21 catches, 294 yards, and two scores this season. Indianapolis is a team that has the fourth fewer rushing yards per game in the NFL. An absent like Hilton is a major concern for such a one-dimensional offense that leans towards passing the football but won’t have its best weapon.
What’s the latest Patriots betting form to face the Colts?
Those who said the New England Patriots were in a bad spot facing the Miami Dolphins last week feel silly today. Not only did the Pats destroyed the Dolphins and put the football world back in order, but they gained their confidence back. Like a gallon of energy drink to an already stimulated team, they welcome back WR Julian Edelman to the squad. Tom Brady’s number one go-to-guy served a four-game ban due, and he’s back with the team for the rest of the season.
Edelman was deeply missed in the first three weeks. Miami did such a terrible job defending the Patriots’ weapons that New England scored 38 points without having their best offensive performance. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up and against the spread. Their two against the spread wins this season were at home. They covered as a 6.5-point favorite against Houston and Miami. Their two games at Gillette Stadium also resulted OVER the game total established by the oddsmakers at Sportsbetting.ag. The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis, and 7 of the last 8 in the series.
New England is averaging 23.8 points per game (15th) during the first month of the season. That’s far from impressive and not even close to the Patriots’ standard. The return of Edelman should free TE Rob Gronkowski who has only one TD this year. It should bring a spark to WR Chris Hogan, who has been disappointing. And it will also help WR Josh Gordon outside the numbers. Gordon caught only two balls for 32 yards in his debut last week. But his workload will increase with every game. The Patriots are a great wager when it comes to facing teams from the American Conference. They are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games vs. the AFC, but also 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
The play For the TNF Game between Colts Vs. Patriots?
Covering as a 10-point favorite is a challenge, even for the mighty Patriots. I get New England owns the Colts. It’s no longer a rivalry since Peyton Manning left; it’s more like Tom Brady continually reminding Andrew Luck they are not yet in the same league. But still, the Pats are not as tune-up as they would like to be entering month two. New England should win the game and should put lots of points in the process. But I can also see Andrew Luck sling it and keeping this game within reach for the Colts to have a backdoor cover.
Both QBs are so better much better than the two defenses they will be playing against. That means it’s time to bet the OVER for the second consecutive TNF matchup. 8 of the last 10 games played in October by the Colts finished OVER the game total. In 25 of the Patriots last 33 home games against a team with a losing record, bettors cashed in with the OVER. Bet OVER 51 points.