Thursday Night Football Week 8 NFL Picks – Dolphins Vs. Texans Prediction
It is not the sexiest of the Thursday Night matchups, but the Miami Dolphins (4-3, 1-2 Away) and the Houston Texans (4-3, 2-1 Home) are set to open the NFL week 8 at NRG Stadium. Both have a 4-3 record entering this week, but while the Texans are trending up, the Dolphins seem to be in a breaking point of their season. The oddsmakers currently have Houston as a 7.5-point favorite at Sportbetting.ag. It is the second-biggest point spread of the season favoring the Texans.
The betting line opened at 7.5-points, but at some point in the week, you could have found them as just a touchdown favorite. The betting public doesn’t believe the home team should be that much of a favorite and 59% are taking the Dolphins and the points. The game total opened at 45.5 points and is currently at 44 points. Odds below are from SportsBetting.ag. Deposit today for a 50% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 on your first deposit.
Miami Dolphins Vs. Houston Texans Predictions
Spread: Texans -7.5
Money line: Miami (+290) vs. Houston (-345)
Game Total: 44
Date: Thursday, October 25th, 2018
Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
TV: FOX / NFL
What’s the latest Dolphins’ betting form to face the Texans?
Miami’s 4-3 record doesn’t look like Houston’s 4-3 record. The Dolphins are trending down, losing three of their last four outings. The AFC East came back to reality as the New England Patriots are now comfortably on top while the rest of the division struggle to keep the pace. The Dolphins dropped their first home game of the season last weekend by losing 32-21 to the Detroit Lions. Miami was a 3-point dog for this one and failed to cover the spread. It was the third time in the last four games they were unable to deliver any chance to the betting fans that put money on their side.
The team has several issues, but their number one struggle on Sunday was the rushing defense. The Dolphins were destroyed by the Lions, allowing 278 rushing yards on Sunday. Detroit’s Kerryon Johnson had 158 rushing yards in 19 carries. The good news for them is Houston doesn’t have the commitment to run the football as the Lions. Last Sunday against the Jaguars, Texans tailback Lamar Miller recorded only his first 100-yard rushing game since December 2016. I don’t think Miller can emulate this performance on a short week. Even if the Dolphins are struggling to stop the run.
Miami also has issues on offense. The Dolphins will likely put receiver Albert Wilson on season-ending injured reserve due to the hip injury. Wilson leads the team with 391 yards, four touchdowns in 26 catches. They won’t have WR Kenny Stills on Thursday Night either. Stills suffered a groin injury against the Lions. That leaves QB Brock Osweiler with very little to work with. Osweiler was signed by Houston to a massive deal only to become a bust. He probably has been waiting for an opportunity like this since they traded him to Cleveland. Brock completed 22 of 31 passes for 239 yards and two scores against Detroit. However, his team was always down in the scoreboard against the Lions. He will keep throwing no matter if the Dolphins are behind. Be aware of that because it might have backdoor cover consequences.
What’s the latest Texans’ betting form to face the Dolphins?
The Texans’ 4-3 record feels far different from the Dolphins’ 4-3 record. They have won four straight and now are at the top of the AFC South. They have taken advantage of the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars recent missteps. However, even with their four straight wins, the Texans have covered the spread only twice during this winning span. The most similar scenario to this game on Thursday Night is the one they played two weeks ago against the Buffalo Bills. Houston was a 10-point favorite and won only by seven. In fact, their win came with a late pick-six against Nathan Peterman and the lousy Bills offense.
Houston’s number one concern is protecting QB Deshaun Watson. The second-year quarterback is the most sacked QB entering week 8 with 26 sacks. Sometimes he tries to do way too much and ends up holding the ball longer than he should. In other occasions, he just doesn’t get good enough protection from his O-line. The good news is Miami has recorded only 11 sacks this season. Only the New York Giants, the New England Patriots, and the Oakland Raiders are worst.
The Texans defense is the strength of this team. They have allowed 20.6 points per game this season (8th best in the NFL), and just 12.0 points per game in the last three wins. Of course, it helps they faced struggling quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Blake Bortles and the aforementioned Peterman. The series has been one-sided since 2003. Houston has won seven of the last eight meetings. Although the last time they met was in 2015 and the Dolphins won with a whopping 44-26 result.
The play For the TNF Game between Dolphins Vs. Texans?
It’s hard to trust either the Dolphins or the Texans on a short week. They both have issues, and we are talking about two franchises that are probably in the middle of the pack in the NFL. With that said, I don’t feel comfortable laying down 7.5-points for any of these two. Houston is at home, and home teams have won five of the seven Thursday Night game this season. But a 7.-5 point spread applies when you have an above average offense on your side. The Texans don’t have one.
This game won’t be pretty. It won’t have the best offensive display of the week or anything like that, and it should be a close one because both teams are suspect. I’m taking the Dolphins +7.5 to cover the spread. Houston should win in the end, but they have beaten teams by more than a touchdown just once this season.