UFC 242: Khabib Nurmagomedov Vs. Dustin Poirier – Betting Picks And Odds

Khabib vs. Poirier Face Off - UFC 242 Betting Odds And Picks

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier- UFC 242 Betting Preview

One of the most anticipated events in the mixed martial arts (MMA) world is taking place this Saturday, September 8th. UFC 242 takes the Octagon to Abu Dhabi to define who’s the undisputed champion of the lightweight division.

The stakes are high for both contenders. Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov is coming back after his last bout with Connor” The Notorious” McGregor in UFC 229.

After the suspension, he aims to remain as undefeated champion and to show the world that being a champ hasn’t affected his thirst for glory.

Khabib vs. Poirier Odds – UFC 242 Betting

We can expect The Eagle to give everything to become the undefeated and undisputed lightweight champion of the world in Abu Dhabi. On the other side, we have Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. The interim champion of the division and the underdog.

Dustin plans to end Khabi’s impressive winning streak (27-0) and become the undisputed lightweight champion of the world. Not an easy task, but if there’s someone in the game that might be ready for that challenge is Dustin Poirier. Let’s take a look at the odds.

Fighter Moneyline
Khabib Nurmagomedov -435
Dustin Poirier +315

Early odds in July had Khabib as the favorite at -345. The lines started to move, and by the end of August, we saw the odds closer to -400. Nurmagomedov is still a heavy favorite, and MyBookie.ag has The Eagle at -435.

The moneyline movements are not a surprise. It is hard to argue that a guy with his conditions and record wouldn’t be the heavy favorite on this bout.

Dustin’s odds opened at +295 in July. The lines started to adjust, and at the end of August, the dog was closer to +305. At the time of this writing, we find the dog at +315 on MyBookie.ag.

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Don’t let the odds and trends distract you. An underdog is not always a synonym of a loser. The Diamond was the underdog in his last four bouts against top-level opponents like Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, and Max Holloway.

In every single one of those nights, Dustin shocked the world and took home victories. This Saturday Poirier expects to do the same neutralizing Khabib’s mauling style.

Khabib Nurmagomedov Analysis

Khabib is a freak of nature, and he has a 27-0 record supporting that statement. The plan is simple yet effective. He said it several times to the press and the fans.

He’s going to put lots of pressure on Poirier and wrestle him until he starts to gas out. Move the fight to the fence. Take him down and maul him until a submission presents itself.

Nothing fancy right? However, this is what he does, and he does it better than anyone in the sport. Knowing your opponent’s plan doesn’t mean you will be able to stop it. If you don’t believe me, ask Conor McGregor.

Of course, this is not a grappler vs. striker game only as we saw him landing solid punches against Conor in his last fight. And Conor is hands down one of the best strikers we’ve seen in UFC.

The main difference this time is that Conor is comfortable staying out and cutting the distance to land the magic left. Dustin is all about getting inside and destroying you with his boxing.

The issue is that in close range, Khabib will be shooting for shoelaces the whole time until Dustin ends with his back on the canvas.

It will be interesting to see how good Dustin’s ability is to get in, land punches, and get out of reach while defending the takedown.

Khabib’s Ring Rust

I don’t think we can talk about ring rust here, especially after we saw Nick Diaz glorious come back recently. Khabib is a different fighter.

He’s not the type of guy that wins a title, rents a club and goes crazy. Forget the average winning title routine of alcohol, girls, and drugs.

Nurmagomedov is the type of guy that shakes the world and comes back to the gym the next day as if nothing happened. He said as a champ he’s sometimes missing training sessions due to commitments with the sponsors.

The Suspension Affected Him?

It’s hard to imagine him just doing events for his sponsors during his suspension. He has been training both in the US and Dagestan, waiting for this day to come.

What we’ve been able to see of his training camp, is that he’s in great shape both mentally and physically. It all comes down to Khabib’s ability to flawlessly execute his game plan.

We’ve seen him facing outstanding strikers. But Dustin Poirier is looking great both inside and outside the Octagon.

Dustin Poirier Game

On the other corner of the Octagon, we’ll see interim lightweight champ, Dustin Poirier. Once again, Poirier comes to a fight as the dog. But that didn’t stop him from taking the victory home in previous bouts.

Because he’s not a trash talker and we’ve seen so far, respectful energy between champs. It doesn’t mean he’s not seeking to destroy Khabib’s undefeated record.

Dustin’s striking is off the charts, and his training camp –in technique and conditioning – was focused on countering The Eagle’s strongest points.

If you can do this to Alvarez and Holloway, you’re certainly one of the scariest fighters on the planet.

I’m aware Khabib faced great strikers in the past. However, the constant pressure and accuracy Dustin is bringing to the table is something Nurmagomedov needs to be mindful of during the fight.

Poirier is not the guy you want to allow to get comfortable inside the pocket. That’s how you end up waking up without a clue of what caught you and when.

It is an understatement to say that his game is limited to striking, especially when we’ve seen submissions and his effective takedown defense.

What About Khabib’s Grappling?

The problem for him is that he never faced a vicious grappler like Khabib. In the American Top Team, they made sure his wrestling is on point. Not only defensively, but to submit and come on top in the scramble if he needs to.

In the end, I think for Dustin, victory lies in his takedown defense and standing game inside the pocket where he is the most comfortable and dangerous.

If Khabib’s ground game is out of this world, Dustin’s boxing inside the pocket is not something to take lightly.

What’s The Pick For Khabib vs. Poirier?

Champ vs. Champ fights are hard to call, and they come full of surprises. These guys are on the top 1% of the talent pool in the sport.

They’re heavily trained, and in MMA anything could happen. I think conditioning will play a significant role here as both guys are incredibly talented at what they do.

Dustin, hitting people inside the pocket to win by KO. And Khabib, taking you down to maul you until he can submit or the referee stops the fight.

I don’t like these odds, but I would take a shot and pick the undefeated champ at -435. However, my favorite bet is Nurmgomedov By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission at -110.

Bet On UFC 242 At MyBookie Sportsbook

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Gustavo Santiago

Gustavo Santiago - MMA Analyst & Writer

Gustavo is a dedicated mixed martial artist, UFC die-hard fan, and bettor. He’s responsible for our MMA fight breakdowns and UFC picks here at SBS while he’s taking a break from his Muay Thai, Boxing, Wrestling or Bjj training. He is the SBS’ king of Mixed Martial Arts.

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