UFC On ESPN 5: Colby Covington Vs. Robbie Lawler – Free Picks And Betting Odds
When Colby Covington jumps on the octagon this weekend to defend his interim Welterweight title belt, a lot of people will be rooting against him.
The self-proclaimed bad boy of the UFC will go against the Robbie Lawler in the main event of UFC Fight Night on ESPN on Saturday.
Colby Covington Vs. Robbie Lawler Betting Preview
Covington is that one bully that you love to hate, and you want to see it go down. He spoiled “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”, and “Avengers Infinity War” on Twitter, just because.
Plus, he loves to hold a sign that says, “World Champion Colby Covington, Make Welterweight Great Again.” He loves to open his mouth, and until someone shut him up at the octagon, he’s going to keep doing it.
The last time we saw Colby Covington on stage was against Rafael dos Anjos, and he took the win by decision. That win against the former lightweight king Rafael dos Anjos was good enough to grab a lot of media attention.
“Chaos” Covington is 14-1 on his career, and his only loss was thanks to Warlley Alves on December 2015. It’s been a while.
What makes Covington noticeable beyond his loud and annoying words is his wrestling ability.
He is a very versatile fighter, and his edge usually comes from having more endurance and stamina than his opponents. He also has good enough striking abilities that can surprise anyone who doesn’t take him seriously.
Colby Covington has the third-best winning percentage of .900 at the UFC Welterweight history with a 9-1 record. He’s only behind Kamaru Usman (1.000) with a 10-0 record and Georges St. Pierre (.905) with a 19-2 record.
We can find Covington at -225 at MyBookie.ag right now. He opened as -240 favorite, but a lot of money has come on Lawler’s side. While “Chaos” Covington is making a reputation for himself, he’s not entirely there yet. Some believe he still has a lot to prove.
Who Is Robbie Lawler?
Former undisputed champion Robbie Lawler comes to this fight to repair his reputation. He has lost three of his last four outings, including the previous two against Rafael dos Anjos and Ben Askren.
The loss against Askren came during UFC 235 in a first-round defeat via a bulldog choke, but the result was a little controversial. Even Dana White said he wants a rematch after the referee incurred in a “bad stoppage.”
What Lawler has on his favor is that he’s a better boxer than Covington and is not even close. His southpaw stands and kickboxing abilities will give a chance to get this win on a KO at any point.
It’s particularly crucial in this scenario because Colby has a weak defense and usually leaves a lot of space open for solid strikes. Knowing that Lawler is the underdog, this is the type of fighter and matchup that you are looking for is you are thinking about betting the upset.
Another thing going his way is that Lawler has improved his defensive skills in wrestling. Other opponents can stall him at points and not allow him to get comfortable looking for a fight in a standing approach.
But they cannot beat Lawler with wrestling moves as his technique has improved plenty. MyBookie.ag has Lawler at +180 to win this fight and get back on top in the division.
A few weeks ago, he could be found at +200, but the odds have moved a little. 63% of the betting public is siding with Robbie Lawler and is his opportunity to get an upset. At +180 the bet has 36% implied probability of becoming a winner.
What’s The Pick For Covington Vs. Lawler
This fight is a close as it gets in the main event. Both fighters have good enough skills to beat the other, but also have holes in their style that can keep them from winning.
I’m taking Colby Covington -225 to win this event, mostly because I think he’s smart enough to avoid a striking matchup with Robbie Lawler.
Covington will go full wrestling on Saturday night. His stamina will end up frustrating Lawler to a point where the former champ will make costly mistakes. This one should end on a Covington win by decision.