World Series Game 6: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians – Free Preview and Betting Prediction
The World Series moves back to Cleveland after a Cubs victory on Sunday Night. However, the Indians still have a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. In my World Series Betting Preview, I recommended taking the Indians +195. Those odds are now at -245 to win the Fall Classic in favor of Cleveland.
Both of the final games will take place in Cleveland since the American League won this year’s All-Star game. Game 6 will be at 8 PM EST on Tuesday and Game 7 (if necessary) will be played on Wednesday with the same start time.
Chicago opened as -145 road favorites. The odds on the spread haven’t changed much since opening, at BetOnline.ag, the Cubs are -142 and the Indians +132. Betting action has been relatively even on both sides, with a slight advantage for the Indians in volume.
The total opened at seven runs and has not moved. About 60 percent of wagers have been placed on the under. However, the over is the market with more juice at BetOnline. Currently, the odds sit at Over 7 (-130) and Under 7 +110.
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Arrieta versus Tomlin
Jake Arrieta will try to be the Cubs stopper tonight and give them a chance in a Game 7. The righthander and 2015 Cy Young winner. Arrieta threw 98 pitches over 5 2/3 innings in the loss and was effective, if not wild. He allowed one earned run, two hits, and three walks. Arrieta has not gotten out of the six inning in any postseason start this year.
The Indians counter with Josh Tomlin, who is also a righthander. Tomlin has been extremely effective in October, compared to his pedestrian regular season ERA. He’s only allowed three runs in 15 1/3 and Cleveland has won all three of his starts.
I lean towards laying the juice and taking Arrieta and the Cubs, but the best play in this game is on the total in my opinion. While Tomlin has looked excellent this postseason, Arrieta hasn’t been his usual self. He hasn’t been bad, by any stretch, but he’s been wild and hasn’t been able to stay in games.
The Cubs may have to rely on their bullpen more in this one. Aroldis Champman has been good, but he’s coming off nearly three innings of work and may not be 100 percent. The rest of the pen is just average.
Finding holes in Tomlin isn’t too hard either. He’s playing over his head in the postseason compared to his career numbers and has historical been poor off short rest. He’s also playing on three days rest for the second time in his career. He has pitched a lot better this season with more rest. On four days of rest, he posted an ERA of 5.42 versus a 3.47 ERA in starts with five or more days of rest.
If you want to get down on the Cubbies, that makes sense, but offense in this game seems like more a certainty, rather than a Chicago victory.
Pick: Over 7 Runs