Sports Betting Strategy – FAQ
Should I buy points when sports betting?
It depends on the sport and the price that the oddsmakers are offering per half-point or point. There are plenty of spots in NFL betting markets where buying points are a +EV strategy worth considering.
Should I hedge my sports bets?
Bet-hedging can be an excellent strategy to lock in a profit on some markets, but we have found in many cases bettors do it too often. Ultimately, they reduce their EV by placing a hedge bet that is -EV, or in some situations place two -EV bets. If you’re going to hedge a large amount, we recommend you do it with highly rated sportsbooks with a long history.
Can I bet on each side of sports bet?
Yes, you can, but there’s not much value doing this at the same sportsbook unless the odds move enough that you can profit from a sports arbitrage. However, we don’t recommend doing this at the same sportsbook. Another reason to bet on each side of a wager is if you made a mistake by wagering on the wrong side or bet too much.
What is sports betting arbitrage?
Sports arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of prices differences in the sports betting market to lock in a profit. When players arb, also called ‘scalps’ surebets’, or for short, ‘arbs.’ Large margins can be tough to find with arbing and it’s a something some sportsbook don’t typically like players doing.
Is middling a profitable betting strategy?
Middling is a strategy that gives bettors a chance to win both sides of a market with two wagers. Hedging a bet makes a lot more sense when you make a wager with an idea of betting a middle if it becomes available. Middles usually result in small losses but are plus +EV because you win both bets enough to make a profit.
Is fading the public a profitable betting strategy?
It can be, but blindly fading the public is a poor strategy. The strategy has more merit in nationally televised games and in situations where there is reverse line movement or a heavily public majority on side and the odds don’t move. Fading the public across the board in all sports or contests is a poor decision and is -EV.
Are betting exchanges worth it?
Yes, in most cases, you can find the most competitive odds on betting exchanges. Unfortunately, for American residents, there are currently no betting exchanges available online. Betfair is the largest exchange in the world and regularly has the best prices online on major markets.
What is chasing steam while sports betting?
Chasing steam means following steam moves of professional bettors before the betting market can adjust. It’s undoubtedly a +EV strategy but has become harder in recent years because the market reacts so quickly. It’s also something that can get your account limited or banned from some sportsbooks.
What is implied probability in sports bets?
Implied probability is the percentage chance of an outcome as it relates to betting odds. When we refer to the breakeven percentage on a bet, we are referring to the bet’s implied probability. Implied probability is important in calculating vig and spotting +EV opportunities.
How should I respond to line moves when sports betting?
That depends, generally, if the market you were looking to bet don’t move in your favor, the value of that bet may be lost, but that isn’t always the case. Monitoring and predicting line movement is something you will get better at as you progress as a sports bettor. Your goal is to beat the closing line at the top bookmakers.
Should I vary my unit size in my bets?
That’s up to you. We recommend sticking with flat betting and then possibly incorporating a variable staking plan later. We have articles both on traditional bankroll management and Kelly Criterion (variable).
Should I consider trends when placing bets?
This is a tough answer. There can be profitable “trends” in sports betting where the sportsbooks don’t adjust quick enough, but it’s tough to quantify your edge or know for sure the sportsbooks don’t have it factored into the odds. Historical trends, such as underdogs being more profitable than favorites are +EV, but that’s more general knowledge than a trend. Now, the trends bettors shouldn’t follow or pay any attention to is stuff like, “The Dallas Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.” These are posted on ton sites with betting advice and many online sportsbooks even give out these trends for free, right next to their betting markets. That should tell you all you need to know about their value. Sportsbooks would love to have bettors who are wagering based on these “trends” because they’re undoubtedly going to be losing players.
What outside considerations should I consider such as the weather and the refs?
Aside from making finding value in the lines as your main priority, team motivation is a big factor, particularly when it comes to NFL betting markets.
What are some of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make?
There’s a few of them. We have an article about the most common betting reasons why sports bettors lose.
Are there good books on sports betting?
Yes, but not as many as one might think. The main reason for this is that sports bettors don’t want to give out their secrets if they’re killing the bookmakers. Luckily, some have decided to do so. We recommend a few sports betting books, many of which are available in digital format.
Where can I go to learn more about being a better sports bettor?
We hope you read our content at Safest Betting Sites. Seriously, though, there are some excellent discussions and analysis out there, but there is also a lot of noise. Sports betting forums can be an excellent resource for sportsbook feedback but are hit and miss when it comes to actual sports betting strategy.