NCAA College Basketball Betting Strategy
We already gave basketball bettors some tips when it comes to betting on the NCAA March Madness Tournament. You are in the right place if you are looking for college basketball betting strategies to be used throughout the regular season. Most of what you’ll read below is also applicable when it comes to March Madness betting.
The long grind of the season doesn’t quite get the betting action the tournament does, but college basketball markets have been a favorite of sharp bettors for quite some time. Read on and learn few things that will help you to make betting on college hoops more profitable and fun.
Best College Basketball Betting Sites 2018
College Basketball Betting Limits
College basketball limits are among the lowest when it comes to major sports, but wagering limits will typically increase for the NCAA tournament. This is one of the college basketball betting strategies worth considering when placing your bets. Players will only to be able to bet a fraction of what they can in NFL markets compared college hoops during the regular season. Some markets may be reduced more than others, especially when it comes to lesser-known conferences. Similar to college football, college basketball betting sites simply can’t keep track of every team or conference. There is just way time too much on their plate when you consider other sports.
NCAA Basketball Early Season Betting Strategy
As mentioned above, the oddsmakers simply don’t have the time to cover every NCAA basketball team, particularly when it comes to mid-major schools. Sports bettors can study these teams, and those from high major schools and familiarize themselves better than most sportsbook managers. Remember, NCAA college basketball begins in mid-November. This is a busy time for betting sites which are in the middle of the NFL season and fresh off the start of the NBA.
College basketball interest doesn’t usually ramp up until the schedule for the top teams ramp up gets a bit tougher in the new year. Knowledge, in general, is going to help you in these markets, particularly earlier in the season. Similar to the NBA, the oddsmakers odds are less sharp at the beginning of the year than they are later. Coaches may try new things earlier in the year. Players need to get adjusted to systems.
There is a lot more variation when it comes to playing time. This is truer for college basketball, compared to the pros, as every team has a new class of freshman. Even with the higher turnovers in college sports, playing time isn’t nearly as sure as it in the pros. Most NBA teams have their rotations mostly set, even at the beginner of the season, but playing time in the college game, specifically early on, is quite volatile.
NCAA Public Team Betting vs. Poor Opponent
Fading the public in college basketball betting isn’t usually a strategy that is available for the vast majority of college basketball games. The reason for this is that the public simply doesn’t have an interest in most of the games leading up to conference tournaments and the NCAA March Madness tournament. However, there are situations where public betting is a factor to consider when placing a basketball bet. One of the most common is when a highly ranked team takes on a weaker team and/or mid-major. Essentially, we’re looking for heavy public betting (more than 70%) action on one side, and preferably, a double-digit spread.
College Basketball Betting Strategy – Historical Numbers
Historical betting numbers indicate that the NCAA public betting does overvalue favorites in these situations. If the game is televised nationally, this will also influence the amount of public action in the game, therefore affecting the line. There can be quite a bit of value when it comes to large underdogs who are not respecting the public.
The bet is enhanced even more in cases when the teams were once one-time rivals or if the underdog has something to prove, such as competing with a highly ranked team after a terrible in-conference loss. The team doesn’t necessarily have to rank in the A.P.’s Top 25, but that’s often the case with teams that get substantial public backing. Remember, the top 25 teams change quite a bit throughout the year, the gap between an unranked team and a ranked team is much closer than the betting masses think.
Keep an Eye on Basketball Moneylines
This is another college basketball betting strategy worth paying attention. NCAA basketball money lines typically have the lowest betting limits out any college basketball market. They’re a tight market for sportsbooks to price, particularly because often they don’t have a ton of information on one or both of the teams. The line movement in college basketball, especially in the case of unranked teams on games that aren’t on national television, is almost always a case of wise guys or sharp, professional-level bettors.
Moneylines may be tougher to track than other markets. In many cases, moneyline odds for college basketball games, and specifically those with two mid-majors playing may not be available when looking at a live odds board. It is tougher to find where the odds opened. However, line movement, particularly when it’s a large move, on moneylines can be hugely significant.
Moneyline betting odds are tied to point spread odds but are not always calculated correctly by sportsbooks. It’s also important to keep in mind, that if the sportsbooks are inflating their odds due to public betting action, it’s not only the point spread that will be inefficient but the moneyline as well. Point spread wagers are 1.1 to win 1 unit in most cases, but moneyline wagers, especially when it comes to underdogs offer much larger returns.
KenPom.com – For Basketball Betting Strategy
If you’re betting college basketball and haven’t been to KenPom.com, you’re making a huge mistake. If you were just a fan of the sport (and not a sports bettor) you’re merely missing out on an exciting resource, but if you’re betting and not checking out the site, you’re missing out on the money. Their rankings are a bit different than the A.P.’s. They ranked the teams going forward, not how a team has played previously. Obviously, that has a part in it too. However, the rankings are based on which team would win on a neutral court the next day. Which is far more valuable than the A.P.’s rankings.
KenPom’s rankings aren’t something the average public who can drive up lines on high profile games visits before he places a bet. It’s vital to differentiate yourself from statistics that the betting public is using to evaluate betting markets. One of the best-advanced statistics they offer is adjusted efficiency. This ranks teams based on their offense and defensive efficiency, which is also weighted based on the opponent. It’s probably the best statistic online for evaluating a team’s ability on both sides of the ball.
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Follow Beat Writers For Basketball Betting Tips
This college basketball betting strategy goes back to learning more about the games and its coaches and players. There is value to following local beat writers on Twitter for college hoops handicapping as part of a basketball betting system, but much of the news regarding the Association is mainstream and widely reported.
However, college basketball is a whole different ballgame (no pun intended). One thing we’ve been touching on throughout this entire article is getting to know mid-majors. This works in larger conferences as well but isn’t nearly as valuable. Beat writers will be excellent in both cases. Twitter is one of the best places to find news closer to tip-off, especially when it comes to injuries. Bettors can certainly find information the sportsbooks don’t just yet and in some cases will be able to act on it before the odds are adjusted.
College Basketball Betting Systems
There are many college basketball betting systems. We at SBS use one of the most simple and long-standing betting systems. That is, to bet on an unranked team that is favored against a ranked team. The whole idea is pretty straightforward and cuts to the core of successful handicapping. Sportsbooks know more than you and it is not a bad idea to fade the public or bet against the masses. We recommend following the sportsbooks on what teams you should place your NCAA college basketball wagers. If you want to read more about basketball betting systems we recommend our NBA Betting System pages.