#5 NFL Betting Mistake: Getting Betting Advice from the Sports Media
Even though sports betting isn’t regulated outside of Nevada, everyone seems to have an opinion on who is going to cover that weekend. This includes bloggers, ESPN hosts, hometown radio guys, your friends, your father, and anyone else who watches football. It’s important not to take their advice seriously. In a lot of cases, they’re not even making any bets themselves. Their knowledge of sports betting is likely almost zero. Their enthusiasm and description of what might happen in the game is something that should be ignored altogether or taken extremely lightly.
Just because they are former players or their jobs centered around NFL news and predictions doesn’t qualify them to give betting advice. Often, the odds they quote are old, and the market has already moved. We’re not saying you have to shut your ears to everything anyone who isn’t an expert handicapper says. That would be ridiculous. However, we are saying you shouldn’t base your sports betting picks based on which teams they like on Sunday NFL Countdown.
Anyone who has a clue about sports betting should already know this, but this is mostly addressed to the betting masses, the vast majority of which are losing bettors. Stop making bets on the opinion of people who have no idea how to profit from betting sports instead read our free sports picks for pros’ predictions.
#4 NFL Betting Mistake: Betting Too Many Games
How many games should you bet per week? Well, there’s no exact number. You’re looking for value, and if you find that, you’re going to place a bet. For most bettors, this probably around 3-5 games per week. If you’re craving the action or eager to sweat, well, it’s time to learn some discipline. Betting sports isn’t about how many games you can sweat. It’s about getting the best of what’s available in online betting markets.
#3 NFL Betting Mistake: Betting Too Many Parlays and Teasers
This ties right into betting too many games. It shouldn’t be a secret that the sportsbooks clean up when it comes to parlays and teasers. There are viable strategies for both teasers and NFL parlay bets for betting the NFL, but most bettors aren’t utilizing these properly or at all. Straight betting is almost always going to be better than a parlay. There can be times when parlays make more sense, like when clearing a bonus or circumventing betting units, but even when it comes to two or three team parlays, straight bets are still the right choice.
Teasers can be a little better, but at most sportsbooks, they’ve adjusted their odds to stay out the range of basic strategy teasers. You might find a spot to bet these at +EV pricing, but it’s not going to happen at major sportsbooks. It might not be what you want to hear, but sports betting is mostly straight wagers on sides and totals. If you are interested in betting teasers and parlays, keep at a maximum of three teams or selections and wager a significantly smaller amount (like ¼ of a betting unit, or less) than your standard unit size. The oddsmakers advantage on both bets gets exponentially larger once bettors go beyond three teams.
#2 NFL Betting Mistake: Pro NFL Betting Sites Vs. Recreational Ones
It’s no secret that sportsbooks that take the most money are the sharpest online. In U.S. online betting markets, that’s none other than Sportsbetting.ag. They’re probably the most trusted sportsbook for U.S. residents and their odds aren’t quite sharp. You may end up at Bookmaker eventually if you’re a highly successful sports bettor, but it’s not a sportsbook we recommend attacking until after you have exhausted your opportunities elsewhere.
That means focusing on NFL betting sites that target recreational players, such as Bovada.lv and Mybookie.ag. Their odds, in general, are much softer. Not only that, but they will shade their lines towards public perception, which means there is better value with underdogs. There’s isn’t any viable reason why bettors should be wagering at sharper sportsbooks earlier in their career. Stick with trusted, recreational betting sites, then move on to the tougher options. Recreational sportsbooks have excellent underdog dogs, especially for NFL football.
#1 NFL Betting Mistake: Recency Bias
Almost everyone who bets on the NFL has the mentality of “what have you done for me lately” and they heavily base their expectations for the coming week with a heavy emphasis on short-term play. Recency bias is exceptionally high at the beginning of the season. The betting public overreacts heavily to the first few weeks of the season. There are a lot of excellent spots where there is value on teams that have started slow but have a proven track record of success or are simply being undervalued or overvalued by the masses.
As we mentioned in our article on fading the public, doing it mindlessly across every market is not a profitable strategy. However, early season overreactions by the betting public on NFL games is quite common, which is often enhanced when a game is on national television, such as Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football.
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Joseph Falchetti | August 29, 2018Next post
