Kamala Harris Pick Fallout: Betting Odds Change For 2020 Presidential Elections
California Senator and former District Attorney of California, Kamala Harris, has been selected as the Vice presidential candidate in Joe Biden’s general election campaign. Biden’s VP pick is just in time for the Democratic National Convention which will take place online Monday, August 17 – 20. The DNC was supposed to be hosted in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
But, COVID-19 happened. And it’s still happening.
Perhaps that’s why the most recent poll numbers have been fluctuating. Whereas Biden had been leading in a vast majority of general election polls, that lead has dwindled down from double to single digits.
While the incumbent, Republican President Donald Trump, has been allowed free reign in his off-the-cuff speeches and rambunctious policy-decisions, the Democrats have been keeping sleepy, uninspiring Biden hunkered down in his Delaware hideout.
Biden will give his DNC acceptance speech from Delaware, and likewise the new VP candidate Harris. I’m not sure if “fallout” is the right word, just yet.
But I’m hard-pressed to believe that a Biden-Harris ticket can readily defeat Trump from gaining a second term.
Breakdown of Party Odds
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This year, believe it not, will see three presidential debates. The first is set to take place in Cleveland, Ohio, on September 29. This is an important date on the general election calendar. It will serve as the first time Biden has opened his mouth, face to face, against President Trump.
This is clearly where Trump is at his best against his political opponents. He has even decided to host his Republican National Convention acceptance speech from the White House lawn. “Any lawn,” he seemed to say to the media, “there are a lot of lawns here. They’re all great lawns.”
MyBookie is currently favoring the Democrats as the winning party in the general election at -170 to the Republicans’ +135. Odds at BetOnline have Biden winning the White House at -135 and Trump at +105.
I see the Republicans as a very worthwhile bet here. Trump represents the incumbent political party going into a general election for a second-term before the debates have even taken place. And they are giving these kinds of odds?
That’s hard to beat.
Can the Democrats Hold Their Lead of Will Republicans Pull Ahead?
While it’s certainly true that Biden has held somewhat of a lead for the last month or so in the general election polls. I’m not so sure that his lead is such a safe bet. His VP pick in Harris won’t be convincing progressives to vote Democrat in the general election.
Instead, it’s highly plausible that the Biden-Harris ticket will reignite Republican voters to vote against these moderate liberals. After all, it has been the Democrats who have pretty much decimated America’s middle-class with neoliberal trade deals that have sent good-paying jobs elsewhere overseas.
And it’s been the Democrats who have increased the police presence in much of America’s liberal-dominated big cities. Maybe that’s why there’s such a high number of support for third-party candidates in the general election coming from Utah?
Salt Lake City will host the Vice presidential debate on October 7. Trump has a healthy lead there in terms of the general election. Nominal swing states in Ohio and Florida seem to be up for grabs, as well.
Can the country really bank on Biden’s performances on the debate stage? That seems highly doubtful.
Odds on a Personal Level
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I really like Trump at +100. I mean, who wouldn’t? Other than liberal Democrats. I could even spare some loot with Trump at +135, too.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s not because Trump is such a favorable candidate. But I think the rollicking back and forth between Trump and Biden this year is mostly due to the public’s chagrin.
Trump knows this and he’s shown his political acumen by desperately signing an executive order to keep unemployment benefits flowing and to forgive student debt.
Why couldn’t the Democrats have done something like that back in the bailout of 2008?
So, yeah. This is going to be personal for a lot of voters. As it should be.
Which Party is More Popular?
It’s somewhat of a challenge to discern which political party is more popular in the lead-up to the general election. Obviously, the Democrats have been leading in a lot of the recent polls. Trump’s approval rating, however, has remained above 38% during that same period.
So the question of this general election isn’t really which party is more popular. It’s all about which party is less popular. We’re all feeling that headache when listening to both candidates…
MyBookie is giving the Democrats -500 odds to win the popular vote against the Republicans at +275.
The only reason why I can say the Democrats are more popular right now, is because of the shifting polarities between American’s two-party duopoly.
So, it would be hard to say right now that the Republicans might potentially win the popular vote in November. That seems highly unlikely, according to recent polling.
But that was the same political trope assumed back in 2016. I think these underdog bets are extremely worthwhile.
Top Picks in Harris Fallout
A lot remains to be seen in the lead-up to the general election. Probably one of the most important weeks has arrived in terms of gambling odds. The DNC will soon offer a lot of information to voters and gamblers alike about what Biden and Harris stand for, in terms of policy and substance.
It’s probably worth noting that if you intend to watch the DNC online, don’t eat too soon beforehand. You might throw it up.
And as horrible as that might sound to some, it’s all too true once you take a step back and realize that Biden’s VP pick in Harris was a very big slap in the face to progressives. And it was a boon for moderates in the party alongside Biden and his corporate donors.
Nothing will fundamentally change. Those were Biden’s words.
Right now, political optics are in favor of the Democrats. But once Biden is unleashed to the public and voters slowly realize how close Harris—a lawyer and a cop—may come to the office of the presidency … I think the polls will turn in favor of the Republicans, once again.
There’s just not much room for moderate rebels anymore now that former President Barack Obama is out of office. Trump fills that political vacuum much better than any candidate in the general election, even with the selection of Harris as Biden’s VP.