Politics certainly isn’t the first thing that gamblers think of when they log into their favorite online betting site. However, betting on politics is one of the fastest growing betting markets in the world. Billions of dollars are wagered on the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Race alone. That’s not counting the many other political markets in America and around the world, particularly in areas where sports gambling is legal and regulated.
For gamblers looking for an edge, betting on political events can turn into something more than a cynical battleground or second act behind sports betting. Below you will find helpful information about placing bets at political betting sites, strategies, plus other resources to help you pick a winning candidate.
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Political Betting Markets
Betting on the outcome of elections has been around quite a while, but the expansion of markets in the past few years has been impressive. In the older days, political markets were small, and usually just consisted of odds on Republican and Democratic nominations and the 2020 Presidential election. These days, it’s much more than the above image. Bettors can now wager on the winners of primaries in each state and ton of other stuff, like margins of victory, and if one of the candidates with face federal charges!
It’s important to keep in mind, that 5Dimes provides a much larger list of political betting options than most other U.S. facing political betting sites. Many sites still offer just a few primary markets, as MyBookie does, but if you’re looking for more in-depth political markets, they are easily available. International sportsbooks, particularly those based out of the United Kingdom or Ireland have extensive offerings in political markets, with considerably higher betting limits than most U.S. sportsbooks. Their markets extend far beyond the American political spectrum. They offer odds available on politics from across the world.
Best Political Betting Sites For 2020 Presidential Election
- Accepts Cryptocurrencies
- Accepts credit card deposits
- Timely payouts guarantees
- Promotions and bonuses year-round
- Generous deposit bonus up to $1000
- Excellent software for desktop and mobile
Why Bet At Mybookie?
Welcome Bonus of 50% Up To $1,000 on the first deposit makes Mybookie one of the top betting sites online. They have a long history in the industry but have truly come on in the last couple of years to become a leader in sports betting. Timely payouts are something worth mentioning.
- Accepts Litecoin and Bitcoin
- Credit card deposits accepted
- Excellent and timely payouts
- Competitive odds for elections
- Event specific bonuses offered each season
- Large assortment of sports betting markets
Why Is SportsBetting The Best?
The 50% Up To $1,000 Welcome Bonus is hard to pass by and the payout times are fast. Sportsbetting is the top betting site in the industry and easily the most professional. They offer competitive odds in all sports and tons of markets, from propositions to live betting.
Political Betting Site – PredictIt.org
PredictIt is a prediction market that has its roots in New Zealand. They provided a prediction exchange on both political and financial markets. The company, surprisingly, is owned by a University, the Victoria University of Wellington. They also have an office in Washington. D.C. PredictIt began operating November 2014 and has grown in popularity since then.
PredictIt operates similar to a betting exchange, except they use a double-auction to sell shares. This means that for every prediction that will take place, there must be another person matching the wager or predicting the event not to happen. PredictIt isn’t classified as illegal gambling, either in their home country of New Zealand or the United States. To secure this distinction, each question (betting market) is limited to 5,000 traders (bettors) and $850 maximum investment (bet) on each question.
PredictIt.org In The US
We’re happy that PredictIt can operate in the United States without legal issues. However, they aren’t licensed by any state.
Despite not being licensed in Nevada and Washington, they still welcome anyone from those states. They do accept anyone from within the United States, as they have traders in all 50 states.
We highlight PredictIt as an alternative for sports bettors in the USA, or as a complement to online sportsbooks. Their maximum of $850 per market is more than most sportsbooks will take on political markets. The site is an excellent alternative or complement to online political betting markets.
It’s important to keep in mind that PredictIt acts within a grey area; similar to offshore sportsbooks. The site seems to do things by the book, as they have operated successfully under a no-action letter from the CFTC. Everything has been going well since they were approved to operate by the CFTC in October 2014.
It is also worth keeping in mind that PredictIt doesn’t have an efficient market. This is due to the fact that their odds are set by the Traders. It’s not going to be as accurate as foreign bookmakers. Or betting exchanges like BetFair, a renowned brand, whose odds are set by the oddsmakers themselves.
It is still an excellent site for trading (betting) on elections and other political events for American residents.
Political Betting Strategy
Political betting markets are one of the best novelty markets for bettors to consider attacking, even if they have little or interest in politics. Value can be tough to spot, but as we get closer to election day, +EV spots will open up for sharp bettors.
Recreational Political Bettors
The one thing about proposition or recreational betting markets is that a significant portion of the players that bet them are recreational or losing bettors. Politics are polarizing, there is rarely unilateral action in politics, like some other proposition or recreational markets. Even when the election may be clearly decided, before it comes time to go to the polls, bettors may still be wagering on the underdog to significant numbers. Sharp bettors should usually be able to get themselves a decent price as they get closer to election day because there’s almost always to be proper action on both sides.
Market Efficiency In Politics Betting
It isn’t a secret that sports betting markets can predict the outcome of sporting events closer than anyone in the media. The accuracy of the oddsmakers beats anyone else in the world, and it’s not close. However, as far as political markets go, that may not be the case. As mentioned above, there is a lot of money being wagered on elections these days, but the efficiency of political markets is still something up for debate.
Some claim that the markets are mostly efficient, particularly the top bookmakers, and that worldwide betting markets are more accurate than polls. While others see hidden value in polling data that may be more accurate in predicting the margin of victory. It’s tough to trust numbers reported by the media, or coverage given to particular candidates because often the media has their own agenda. Also, polls differ depending on how they are calculated. Nevertheless, there’s a simple solution here for those who want to bet these markets, consider all factors. There are also several sites that are dedicated to political markets, which are excellent resources.
When to Bet On Political Events?
When to bet isn’t usually a topic that we discuss much when it comes to betting sports. Next day odds for baseball, basketball and hockey odds are up in the late evening or early morning. Football is the one sport that is spread out over a week. There are intricacies to betting each sport, but for the most part, the goal for bettors in most markets is simply line shopping and beating the closing line. Political betting is a bit different.
Sportsbooks post odds for elections way in advance. Odds begin appearing several years before the election at some bookmakers. Compare this to futures for major sports, which are, at most, posted a year in advance. Why do they post odds on elections so early? Well, for one, no bookmaker is going to be unhappy about someone placing a bet two years in advance. Secondly, it gives the industry publicity, and if other sportsbooks have the market, then you need to match your competitors.
There is certainly merit to placing a bet far in advance on political markets if you believe that the odds will change in your favor as election day approaches. Nevertheless, the vast majority of the time, it’s better to wait until closer to election day to place your bet. As we get close to election day, things become clearer, and there is still value at the betting window. Front-runners will often change in the years leading up to the election. Typically, the value comes towards the end of the race for gamblers.
Political Betting – Blogs and Resources
- ElectionBettingOdds.com uses Betfair (world’s largest betting exchange) for odds on American elections. Their predictions are updated every five minutes, and they have odds for both party nominations, in addition, to the presidency. The odds are also available, for state primaries.
- PoliticalBetting.com calls themselves “the best online resource for betting on politics”, and they might be right. The site centers around British politics, but covers everything under the sun, including American elections. There is new content daily, and lively discussion on just about every post in the comment section. This is a must-read publication if you’re seriously interested in betting politics.
- PoliticalGambler.com is run by British journalist and professional gambler, Paul Motty. He’s also a columnist for Politco.com and analyst for Betfair on political markets. He’s one of the best minds in the business. Even though he’s British, he knows U.S. politics better than most American pundits.