Trump vs. Biden Final Presidential Debate Betting Odds Analysis

Trump vs. Biden Final Presidential Debate Betting Odds Analysis

The final presidential debate will take place on Thursday night, Oct. 22, in Nashville, Tennessee, at 9 PM EST. Major networks will be broadcasting the debate live in a 90-minute, uninterrupted format.

On Monday, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will have two minutes of response time, just like the first debate. This time, however, when one candidate is speaking the other will have a muted mic.

Trump called this last-minute decision “unfair”. And his campaign manager referred to the CPD as a liberal conspiracy that favors Biden.

Nevertheless, Trump is still trailing Biden in nationwide polling. Although in some of the more important swing states, the two candidates have drawn closer over the last week.

What Will the Candidates Cover in the Final Debate?

According to the CPD, the six topics for the final debate will be COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership.

In October, Trump’s approval rating is hovering around 44%. Among the largest samples for general election polling, Biden leads the incumbent by double digits.

So, this debate is going to be crucial for both campaigns.

Which Candidate is Favored Before the Debate?

Trump is practically guaranteed to win Tennessee (-6000) where the debate will be held. This will be like a home-field advantage for the Super Bowl. Except the fan noise will be shut off when the other team gets the ball.

One of Trump’s only advantages against Biden at the first debate was being able to talk over Biden, throwing Sleepy Joe off his game.

If the coaching is right, Biden should get plenty of prep for his talking points on Thursday. All he’ll have to do is land a few good punches, while the president is muted, and that should be enough to show the American people how divisive Trump is as president.

The topics for the debate are some of the most divisive issues facing America today. I’m not sure Trump has any answers. And that’ll be poor optics for him in the final debate.

Biden might be the slight favorite.

Or as Trump might say: Bad!

Odds Going Into Thursday’s Debate

Going into Thursday’s debate, Biden (-160) is still favored to win the general election against Trump (+120). Those odds are clearly tilted somewhat for Biden only because Trump has completely botched America’s COVID-19 response.

The president even contracted the virus and he’s still acting like it’s no big deal. This is one major contrast to Biden’s campaign. It showcases just how divided America is right now, when a major pandemic has become endlessly politicized and bipartisan.

Trump would have to really fall flat on Thursday’s debate to get any worse odds than what he’s getting now.

Nationwide polling is where Biden has been the strongest. But that’s only pertinent to the popular vote in America. Democrats (-600) remain heavily favored to win the popular vote against Republicans (+350).

Party Odds
Democrats -600
Republicans +350

I think that’s going to be the only certainty in the outcome of this election. The rest of everything else is a complete disaster—except for gambling. That’s the fun part.

Importance of Swing States in This Election

The swing states will be the deciding factor in this election. Trump and Biden have both gained and lost some ground as early voting has begun.

In polling this week, Biden and Trump are practically tied in swing states like North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania. So it’s looking like Trump’s swing state victories that ultimately led him to win the 2016 election aren’t as certain this year.

It’s going to be close. I’ve gone back and forth myself about this. Both candidates aren’t that great.

Trump is really going to need to pull out a wild victory in some important places. It’s almost unfathomable that things have gotten this close two weeks before Election Day.

In any sane country, the deaths of 230,000 citizens from a public health crisis overseen by a ruling party, the opposition should cruise to a victory.

But that’s America for you.

Trump and Biden in Pennsylvania

Also on Monday, it was announced that the Supreme Court voted 4-4 to allow the state of Pennsylvania to count mail-in ballots up to three days after Election Day on November 3.

This was another decision that the Republicans decried. It’s no wonder. Pennsylvania has become one of the most critical states to win in this election.

Trump (+185) is the underdog in Pennsylvania against Biden (-280). Again, I think these odds are a little too far in Biden’s favor.

Polling numbers may not be indicative of what will happen in two weeks. Especially with the Supreme Court’s decision that will allow ballots to be counted three days after the election.

While that’s probably going to be BAD for the country, for betting purposes this might mean big money.

When Will the Loser Concede the Election?

One of the more favorable wagers right now on MyBookie, when it comes to politics, is guessing when the loser will concede the election.

With this new Supreme Court ruling, the odds don’t match with the current reality. Since the swing states will most definitely decide the election, Pennsylvania is the cornerstone for this gamble.

November 6th is getting +650 for when the loser will concede the election. If it’s going to take the state three extra days to count their ballots, this isn’t such a bad bet.

Still, November 7th is getting +800 odds for being the day when the loser concedes the election.

If you play this one right, you might not need to work for the next six months. And that should be plenty of time to give you a buffer to leave the country (if you haven’t already) as it descends into constitutional chaos.

Of course, there’s no wager for neither Trump nor Biden to concede defeat. Which is strange, considering that’s what seems to be the most likely outcome going into Thursday’s final presidential debate.

It should be a fun one, depending on how you look at things.

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