I already gave you my pick on the side and total the total for the Big Game, but here’s where all the action truly lies, Super Bowl propositions.
These won’t be in the wacky or crazy category, but prop bets on the real stuff, in-game props, player props, and to score a touchdown props.
Okay, let’s get right to it.
Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-145)
This number has moved quite a bit since opening. Currently, most of the market has moved to -130 or worse.
Regardless, I like this place up to -145 as I still think Hill gets to 7 receptions or more in this game.
Ty-Freek exploded in the previous matchup between these two teams during the regular season for 13 catches, 269 yards, and three touchdowns.
Of course, I’m not predicting a game as we saw earlier in the year, but anything close and this prop sails over.
Hill Winning The SB MVP?
Tyreek Hill is also around +1000 to win Super Bowl MVP.
We see the MVP go to the winning team’s QB more often than not, but I think when we get a price like this on Hill, we need to take a stab.
Let’s go one unit on over 6.5 catches and 0.25 units on him to win the SB MVP.
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
We’re going back to the betting on the Chiefs for another prop, and this one is related to Mahomes.
No one seems to think of him as a runner, and that is certainly a mistake. In fact, he actually has run more in the postseason compared to the regular season.
In the 2019 postseason, he eclipsed this number in all three games, running for 53 yards twice and 29 yards in a third game.
In 2020, he was well on his way to doing the same against the Browns, but could only muster 14 yards before getting hurt.
I think this matchup bodes well for Mahomes, particularly as a runner, compared to other defenses.
The Buccaneers love rushing their front four then dropping into coverage. This should leave Mahomes with plenty of open space with the Buccaneers dropping back in coverage.
This line is another one that is a bit all over the place. The over 19.5 (-105) at MGM is the best price I found on this bet but at most sites, it is 22.5 or 23 at -115. I still like this at 22.5 or 23, but perhaps at a reduced stake.
If you can find 19.5 or 20.5, go with 1 unit on Mahomes rushing yards over.
Tom Brady To Throw An Interception (-145)
Brady has been fantastic under center this season, but even more prolific as the regular season ended and he took his team into the playoffs. However, he has thrown a lot of interceptions.
They’re not especially bad ones either, but Brady and the offense are totally fine with throwing it up for grabs to Evans or Godwin and letting them have a chance at it.
If the ball gets picked off, especially on third down, it works the same way as a punt.
I realize this prop is at -145, but it’s not a lot to lay considering Brady has thrown quite a few interceptions lately. He threw three against the Packers and four in his last three games totals.
This will be a high-scoring affair with lots of throwing and potentially, the Buccaneers will need to come from behind to win. I think this is a great spot to bet against one of the GOATs.
Lay -145 to win one unit on Tom Brady to throw an interception.
Patrick Mahomes To Score A Touchdown (+300) and Tom Brady To Score A Touchdown (+550)
I put both of these together because if you hit one of these you’re likely looking at a nice Super Bowl. But, they also have value as standalone bets.
I think I described my reasoning quite well with Mahomes and his rushing upside in this game. He also scored a touchdown against the Browns in the Divisional Championships on a 5-yard run when everyone in the endzone was covered.
I think +300 is a bit too generous for a quarterback that has been shown to use his legs more in the postseason and one that isn’t afraid to drive for a score
Betting On Brady To Score A Touchdown
Brady on the other hand looks like a harder sell in this market, but when we take a look at the box scores and the odds we are getting – it’s actually the play I like better.
Old-man Brady actually has four rushing touchdowns this season, including one against the Saints.
We’ve seen him be extremely successful with the sneak throughout his career and he snuck in a TD from one yard out against the Saints in the Divisional Round.
Arians is happy to give it to his QB from one-yard out and not risk a handoff to his running back. At +550, Brady only needs to score 15% of the time for us to breakeven. I think it’s closer to 20%.
Bet a half-unit on Brady to score a touchdown +550 and Mahomes to score a touchdown +300.