US Elections Betting – Is the Stage Set for Another Trump Victory?
On Wednesday, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced the moderators for the upcoming debate schedule. There will be three presidential debates between incumbent President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Additionally, Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris will square-off in a VP debate.
The debates will begin in late-September and run through October:
Presidential Debates Dates 2020
- First presidential debate (FOX): Tue, Sept. 29th – Cleveland, Ohio.
- VP debate (USA Today): Wed, Oct. 7th – Salt Lake City, Utah.
- Second presidential debate (C-SPAN): Thu, Oct. 15th – Miami, Florida.
- Third and final presidential debate (NBC) – Thu, Oct 22nd – Nashville, Tenn.
Let’s take a look at the odds associated with the debate schedule:
Electoral Odds For The Debate Schedule 2020
|STATE||REPUBLICANS’ ODDS||DEMOCRATS’ ODDS|
|VIRGINIA||+450||-900||Bet On The U.S. Presidential Election 2020 At|
- The Republicans (-215) are favored to win Ohio against the Democrats (+160) in the general election.
- In Utah, the Democrats (+700) are essentially a lost cause against the Republicans (-1000).
- In Florida, the Democrats (-125) hold a very slim margin over Republicans (-105).
- Up in Tennessee, a Republican (-1600) stronghold maintains a gargantuan lead against the Democrats (+1100).
I think these odds speak for themselves. But we still have to ask. Is the stage set for another Trump victory, come November?
Let’s find out and get a breakdown for some of the odds…
Odds To Win The Presidential Election
|Party||Odds To Win|
|Bet On The U.S. Presidential Election 2020 At|
|Party||Odds To Win|
|Bet On The U.S. Presidential Election 2020 At|
As President Trump stresses the importance of “Law and Order” from his Twitter account, many states across the country are still waiting on the arrival of U.S. federal unemployment assistance. The first round of unemployment benefits had been passed back in March, as a response to a historic economic downturn from the global COVID-19 pandemic. Those benefits expired at the end of July.
A ‘Law and Order’ President?
Since then, all hell has broken loose.
America has become a shitshow of looting, anarchy, rioting, vandalism, and murder, intermixed with a smorgasbord of corruption, virtue-signaling, name-calling, the blame game, and fudged unemployment numbers. (Unemployment in America could still be anywhere from two-to-three times worse than what’s expected to be reported by the U.S. Labor Department, this Friday, Sept. 4.)
It’s Trump’s way—or the highway.
Trump Has Narrowed the Gap Between Him and Biden, Especially among Swing States
Poll numbers this week offered Trump only a two-point deficit in the general election, down from Biden’s static seven-to-eight percent lead. MSNBC reported a similar narrowing of the gap between Biden and Trump among swing states.
As a majority of registered voters in America have given partial blame to Trump for such high numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, Biden has echoed those sentiments by enumerating the president’s ‘failures and delusions’.
Still, Trump is planning for crackdowns on “anarchist” cities while recommending from Wilmington, North Carolina, that people should vote twice, just to be safe.
North Carolina Is Still a Coin-Flip
Also from North Carolina this week, Trump polled at +2 while a second poll favored Biden at +4. (Another poll released as of this writing has Biden at +2.) Democrats (-125) have maintained their small lead over Republicans (-105) in this swing state.
Trump won North Carolina in 2016 by 3.7% where a third-party candidate, Libertarian Gary Johnson, garnered 2.8% of the vote. (Johnson won over 4.45 million votes in the 2016 election.) In the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans won nine out of 13 U.S. House seats in North Carolina.
In other words, I still like Trump in North Carolina as a coin-flip.
Kenosha, Wisconsin, As A Political Hotbed
Biden will be traveling to Wisconsin this week, in the wake of Trump’s visit in support of police, after Jacob Blake had been shot at seven times by police in Kenosha. Biden maintains an eight-point lead over Trump in the polls. However, the gambling odds have changed in Trump’s favor since last week.
Democrats (-220) have slid among oddsmakers while the Republicans (+155) climbed only slightly. Trump won Wisconsin by a mere 0.8% back in 2016, while third-party candidates won about 4.7% of the vote. Trump won Kenosha County by only 55 votes and third-party candidates earned about 5,100 votes.
It’s strange to see the odds changing in favor of the Republicans in Wisconsin. It could be a small sign that former third-party voters might be deciding to vote Republican at this late stage in 2020.
You could take the Republicans as the underdog, but this is a huge state that’s vital to Biden’s campaign. I’m expecting Democrats to go all-in when it comes to campaigning in Wisconsin, unlike Hillary Clinton’s 2016 doomed presidential run.
Showdown In Pennsylvania Heats Up
Trump will be heading to Pennsylvania next, where Republicans (+150) have also climbed a bit since last week. Democrats (-200) are still favored in this swing state but that lead has slightly dwindled.
Poll numbers from Pennsylvania this week give Biden a +3 lead over Trump. (That’s within the polling’s margin of error.) As of Thursday at noon, however, polls put Biden and Trump at an even tie of 46%.
Pennsylvania is clearly one of the most hotly-contested swing states right now in the general election. So I still believe a Trump win would be very huge here.
Swing States Like Michigan and Minnesota: No Viable Third-Party Candidates May Help Trump
Biden holds a decent lead there in the polls. But why not take the underdog?
There are myriad rural counties in Minnesota that voted for Trump in 2016. He only lost the state by less than two percent. Third-party candidates accounted for 5.2% of the vote.
I think a lack of any viable third-party candidates in this presidential election is only going to help Trump in rural and middle-America.
Back in 2016, voters ultimately showed their disillusionment with the betrayal of neoliberal policies. And I see that trend picking up pace one again in this election, even during a viral pandemic.
Nevada As An Important Swing State Out West
Nevada is another swing state where Republicans (+275) are trailing Democrats (-450). In 2016, Trump carried most of the state in its rural areas, losing by a total of about 2.5%. Johnson, the third-party candidate, took 3.3%.
According to pollsters, Biden is ahead by +5 in Nevada. (The margin of error for that poll was +/- 4 percent.) I think Nevada is more important than most people covering the campaign realize.
I like Trump to win in Nevada. I just don’t know why. To me, the state represents one of the first out on the West coast that Trump could swing in this election.
New Hampshire As The Ultimate Battleground State
New Hampshire is the definition of a “battleground state”. It’s where Trump lost to Clinton in 2016 by about 0.6%, while Libertarian and Green Party candidates accounted for about 5% of the vote.
To me, Nevada is similar to New Hampshire. Two electoral representations where the country might be much more divided than pundits and analysts realize.
If Democrats lose New Hampshire to Trump, they’ll have bigger problems in the future than Trump’s second term in office. It’s plausible that Trump could win New Hampshire and, like Nevada, there’s a decent payout involved.
Virginia As The Final Swing State
Virginia is the final swing state and Biden is up in the polls there by double digits. Clinton won the state in 2016 by about 5%. Virginia was the home state of her VP pick, Tim Kaine, and third-party voters accounted for about 3.7% of the final vote.
MyBookie is giving Democrats (-900) heavily favored odds versus the Republicans (+450). Trump’s going to lose somewhere, so it might as well be here. But it’s worth keeping an eye on this bet, going forward.
With three presidential debates yet to go, you never know what the hell is going to happen next.