We originally published a story on Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor “super fight” when it was announced back in June, after months of speculation. The odds before the fight was announced were around -2000 in favor of Mayweather.
That dropped quickly to -1200 for Mayweather and +800 for McGregor after the fight was made official. They continued to move in favor of McGregor with most sportsbooks now between -400 to -500 for Mayweather and +300 to +400 for McGregor.
Las Vegas Betting Handle
The fight has garnered more betting attention than all of Mayweather’s previous fights. However, they haven’t been on Floyd, one of the best boxers of all-time, and the owner of a 49-0 career record in boxing. Instead, nearly 90 percent of bets have come in on McGregor, who is one of the best mixed martial arts fighters today – but isn’t much more than an amateur boxer.
Where the bets are going hasn’t changed when it comes to offshore betting markets. Bettors are still favoring McGregor massively. However, it’s worth noting that the average McGregor bet size is several hundred dollars, but the average Mayweather bet size is several thousand or more.
The sharps know a good bet when they see one…
Mayweather is a Steal
Forgetting Mayweather’s complete dominance in the sport for a minute, let’s talk about McGregor. He’s one of the best inside the octagon but has never fought a single professional boxing match in his career. Mayweather has beaten 49 straight opponents, many of them who devoted their lives to boxing at a very young age.
“Notorious” has been training for some time for the fight, but he was knocked around by South African welterweight, Chris van Heerden, a few months back. Realistically, McGregor would have a tough time beating any professional boxer, let alone, one of the all-time greats.
The implied probability of a -400 bet is 80% (-450 is 81.82%). That means you should bet on Mayweather if you think he wins this fight more than 80% of the time.
To put this in perspective, “Money,” has been favored by -400 against far more accomplished fighters. He took care of Arturo Gatti as a -400 favorite. He won by unanimous decision as a -400 favorite over Shane Mosley. He was a -300 favorite over Canelo Alvarez when he won by majority decision.
What do all these fighters have in common? For one, they’re all professional boxers, which McGregor is not. Second, they all had dozens of fights under their belts against other boxers, which McGregor does not.
Laying $400 to win $100 isn’t something most sports bettors like to do, but when you consider that the odds moved due to public action and not sharp action, it makes a lot more sense. Vegas bookies and online sportsbooks are planting their flag with Mayweather. They stand to lose seven figures if he loses this one, but they are confident in their position.
And, you should be too.
Several Ways to Victory
Let’s also remember that there are many paths to a Mayweather victory. He hasn’t knocked out another fighter since 2011, and a lot of that surrounds injury issues with his hands. Even his father stated that he might not knock out Mcgregor.
Of course, a knockout isn’t necessary for Mayweather to grab a victory. Although, if there were a time for him to knock out another fighter – an untrained boxer with no professional experience – would make for the ideal scenario.
He’s is thinking about the knockout, though. “It won’t go the distance. I look forward to ending the fight early. It’s not going the distance,” Mayweather said about the upcoming bout. He certainly has his best chance in a knockout in quite some time.
Mayweather’s fights aren’t always entertaining. Opposing fighters always have a tough time hitting him. Remember, he’s only been knocked down a single time in his entire career of 49 fights. No one can hit him.
I have to laugh at people who think McGregor may “catch him with a left-hook” and end his night with a single punch. Yes, he’s considerably older than McGregor, (40 years old compared to 28) but he’s taken on professional boxers in their prime with an exponentially higher skillset than some MMA fighter who has never boxed in his life.
None of them have ever had any success at beating him. Only one of them has ever knocked him off his feet. Mayweather can do what he has done for dozens of other fights. Connect with jabs and never let McGregor hit him.
McGregor is an MMA fighter, not a boxer (yes, I’ve said that already). It’s worth mentioning again, however, due to the much longer duration of a boxing match compared to an MMA fight. Boxers, simply, need more stamina.
The fight will consist of 12, 3-minute rounds, which amounts to 36 minutes of fighting. Quite the difference between traditional UFC fights, which are three rounds and up to 5 minutes per round. UFC title fights can be longer, (5 rounds and up to 5 minutes per round) but even those are still 11 minutes less than a 12-round boxing match.
Fatigue could lead to McGregor being so tired that Floyd knocks him out or wins easily by decision, but it could also lead to frustration. These guys have been going at in the media for months and clearly are not fond of each other.
If the fight isn’t going McGregor’s way or he simply gets angry with Mayweather – he may end up throwing an elbow, headbutt, or worse. Winning by disqualification is another way for Mayweather to achieve victory.
“Precisely Zero Percent”
I tend to agree with Max Kellerman, a man that has been in boxing a long time, that McGregor’s chances of winning this are “zero percent”. He stated, “No. It’s like, you know, if they were competing in the Octagon, Floyd would have no chance. They’re in a boxing ring. Conor has zero percent chance. Precisely zero percent. They’re in a boxing ring. Conor McGregor, there is no universe in which he can win.”
Of course, it’s not exactly zero percent, but it’s pretty damn close in my mind. Mayweather, at anywhere between -400 and -500, is one of the best bets in the last decade, in all of sports betting, not just boxing.
He can win 3-4 different ways, while McGregor doesn’t have a single realistic path towards a victory.
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