Things in America are still super weird. Shifting to the entertainment industry is probably a welcome thought for many people in the country right now—primarily gamblers.
Albeit, the Golden Globes last month lost about two-thirds of its audience from 2020, garnering a viewership of just 6.9 million. (That was about a 64% decrease from the award ceremony’s ratings which pulled in 18.4 million viewers last year.)
Golden Globes’ winners in film and television can still be decent indicators of who is favored to win in similar categories at the 93rd Academy Awards. Otherwise known as the Oscars.
The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Let’s take a look at some of the betting odds and picks.
Best Adapted Screenplay Odds
| Film | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nomadland | -375 |
| The Father | +225 |
| One Night in Miami | +1200 |
| Borat Subsequent Moviefilm | +600 |
| The White Tiger | +2800 |
Nomadland has six Oscar nominations, behind 10 nominations for the film Mank.
The story goes that actress Frances McDormand (a two-time Academy Award winner and the 12th actress in history to win the “Triple Crown of Acting” in film, television, and stage-plays) took the idea to director Chloe Zhao to adapt the nonfiction book Nomadland into a movie.
Zhao directed the movie, and she also wrote the screenplay for it. A graduate of NYU’s film school who quickly became an accomplished filmmaker, she simultaneously worked on a Marvel blockbuster, the Eternals.
She was also the first Asian woman and the second woman to win Best Director at the Golden Globes. (Nomadland also won Best Picture.)
A Heavy Favorite Film To Win The Statue
Thus, Nomadland is a heavy favorite at -350 to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Those odds have been increasing, as well.
Second, The Father is getting +225 odds in this category. The film is based on a play about an aging man with memory loss, co-written and directed by Florian Zeller in his directorial debut.
It seems there is already more buzz about Zeller’s second film. So, I think Nomadland will take this award easily.
A film based on a book about people living out of their cars, trucks, and vans, eking out a living as aging nomads in a desolate economic landscape is much more likely to steal the show.
Best Original Screenplay Odds
| Film | Odds |
|---|---|
| The Trial of the Chicago 7 | +225 |
| Promising Young Woman | -500 |
| Minari | +1200 |
| Sound of Metal | +2800 |
| Judas and the Black Messiah | +2800 |
The Golden Globes winner for best screenplay was longtime filmmaker Aaron Sorkin for the movie The Trial of the Chicago 7. However, the odds seem to be dwindling for him to win in the Oscars category for Best Original Screenplay.
The favored original screenplay here is -500 for Promising Young Woman, written and directed by Emerald Fennell, an English writer, film director, actor, and producer.
A short synopsis of the film: a young woman who works at a coffee shop by day hunts sexual predators at night by pretending to be drunk at bars.
A Strong Contender To Consider
Still, with odds at +225, that doesn’t make for a bad bet on The Trial of the Chicago 7.
It certainly has cultural relevance, being based on a 1969 trial where the federal government had charged seven defendants with conspiracy in the wake of protests at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
I never cared for Sorkin’s work, however, even though it’s highly political. For example, I thought Charlie Wilson’s War covered an essential part of untold American history. But something about the film for me fell relatively flat. He seems to write with extreme bias.
So, maybe Promising Young Woman is more culturally significant after all, especially in the Hollywood industry. Revenge of the traumatized female seems to be highly popular in the literary world, too.
Let’s go with Promising Young Woman for Best Original Screenplay. But since the odds are so heavily favored, the only worthwhile bet so far might be a fifty-spot on The Trial of the Chicago 7 here.
Think about it.
Oscars Odds For Best Supporting Actor and Actress
In the Best Supporting Actor category, Daniel Kaluuya is astronomically favored at -2600 for his role as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah.
His counterpoint in the film, LaKeith Stanfield, who played William O’Neal, an FBI informant, is at the other end of the betting spectrum with +2500 odds.
I’m not sure why Kaluuya would be considered as a supporting actor in a film about Hampton. It seems to me he might have played a significant role in the movie. Either way, it’s one of the few movies I’d actually like to see.
Kaluuya won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture. And he’s basically a lock for the Oscar in the same category.
Additionally, Sacha Baron Cohen (+1200) and Leslie Odom Jr. (+1300) might be worth longshot bets as best supporting actors for their roles in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and One Night in Miami, respectively.
After all, Cohen won a Golden Globe for Actor in a Musical or Comedy. Why not toss a bowl of Corn Flakes out the window?
A Closer Competition Among Women
For Best Supporting Actress, the competition is a little closer. The 73-year-old South Korean actress, Youn Yuh-Jung, is my favorite overall at the Oscars just because she seems like a bursting array of sunshine. But that’s just my opinion.
Yuh-Jung is favored at -450 to win Best Supporting Actress for her role as an emigre grandmother in the film Minari. She has 50 years of experience in film and television. And she won the British equivalent (BAFTA) for Best Supporting Actress just this week.
The value isn’t that great for gamblers. But nobody else seems to shine as brightly as her in this category.
Best Actor and Actress Oscars Betting Odds
Another heavily favored actor is the late Chadwick Boseman, who died last year of colon cancer at 43. Posthumously, he’s receiving odds at -1600 to win Best Actor at the Oscars for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
The film was released three months after his death.
The only thing I know about Ma Rainey is that Bob Dylan mentioned her alongside Beethoven in the song “Tombstone Blues.”
Boseman was superbly eclectic in getting on Up, a 2014 film about James Brown. Before that, he became well-known for his role in 42, a movie about Jackie Robinson.
He won Best Actor at the Golden Globes. I don’t see why it would be any different for the Oscars.
Nobody else deserves an Academy Award this year entirely as Boseman does.
One Of The Most Contested Categories This Year
Moving on, perhaps the most contested category this year is for Best Actress. I think this category represents some of the more vibrant, lively, and worthwhile films of the night.
Surprisingly, singer-songwriter and actress Andra Day won the corresponding category at the Golden Globes for Actress in a Drama Motion Picture.
McDermond won the Best Actress award, however, at the BAFTAs. So at first glance, I wanted to go with her to win the Oscar.
However, the top-two favorites express cultural relevance more so than the others regarding females in the industry. Viola Davis reportedly had an opening line of +1200.
The fact that she is now getting +175 odds to win the award in this category says a lot.
I’m big on momentum, especially in the world of gambling.
If anything, Davis, McDermond, and Day are all worthwhile bets. The value is there, and indeed, wagering on Carey Mulligan at -105 is a decent way to double your money on a coin-flip.
My initial pick had been McDermond, just because Nomadland seemed to be cleaning up at most of the other award ceremonies. But maybe she will have to step aside for Mulligan or Davis.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the top-two favorites took home the award, with McDermond and Day clapping proudly.
Mulligan already won five other awards for her performance in Promising Young Woman. Also, it would be Davis’ second Academy Award but her first for Best Actress.
Too close to call!
Oscars Betting Odds for Best Director and Best Picture
Much like Kaluuya and Boseman for their respective categories as actors, Chloe Zhao is an absolute certainty at -2600 to win Best Director for Nomadland. David Fincher is a highly distant second place at +800 for Mank.
Zhao already won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA for Best Director. Her work on the film obviously struck a chord with the entire film industry. She might be the only person poised to actually win two awards at the Oscars.
As for Best Picture at the Academy Awards, Nomadland is also favored at -700. The film won Best Motion Picture in Drama and Best Film at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs.
Nomadland doesn’t leave much room for anybody else here, either. Culturally speaking, these films seem to represent the American experience that hasn’t changed all that much within the last century.
Personally, I’d like to see a film like Judas and the Black Messiah win Best Picture. Who knows? Maybe this is a category where an “upset” is possible.
But it looks like Nomadland will be among the surest of bets at the Oscars. Tune in!
Or don’t.
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