After the NFL season comes to an end, and the NCAA Tournament at the Final Four stage, we still have the NBA Finals coming up, but the betting and sports world is mostly Major League Baseball. Many bettors bow out after March Madness ends, but we think that’s a mistake. Baseball has many advantages over other sports, and there are still months of plus of +EV bets to be made.
- Sheer Betting Opportunities – Baseball has a 162-game regular season for each team, far more than any other sport. That’s 2430 total games, not even counting post-season baseball. That’s more games to bet, more chances to be selective, and more betting markets for the oddsmakers to analyze and track. MLB betting gives bettors to have thousands of more games to wager and if they can become profitable, add significantly to their betting profits.
- Reduced Vigorish – In most cases, bettors are almost always going to pay -110 or more for their straight wagers, unless betting at a reduced juice sportsbook. However, that’s not always the case when it comes to betting MLB baseball compared to paying -110 or more for every other professional or collegiate sport.Most sportsbooks have dime lines or even better 8-cent lines or 5-cent lines. Bettors will often see a baseball betting market at Yankees -105 and Redsox -105 instead of Yankees -110 and Redsox -110. Sportsbooks compete for baseball betting action and will accept lower commissions compared to other sports. This reduces the house edge from 4.55% on -110 wagers to 2.44% at -105.
- Advanced Statistics Galore – Baseball has always been at the forefront of the analytical movement. Old school baseball stats, which are still official stats by MLB and utilized in most fantasy sports circles, but are mostly outdated. ERA is a flawed statistic. Wins don’t correlate to a pitcher’s ability on the mound, due to his team needing to score runs to get victories and batting average isn’t a great picture of a hitter.There are a lot of advanced baseball statistics to consider when placing wagers. Oddsmakers utilize these stats, as well, when building their odds, but may weigh some more than others or not seeing correlations between two statistics. Using advanced statistics to make bets isn’t advisable but can make more sense when you incorporate other factors and always look to line shop your bets.
- Fewer Factors to Consider – Focusing just on the two pitchers facing off is not the way to bet baseball, but there are a lot fewer factors to consider compared to other sports. Basically, we’re looking at pitching talent versus each lineup, ballpark factors, weather, bullpen usage, defense and base running. Yeah, that’s a lot, but it’s still quite a bit less than analyzing 11-on-11 matchups in football or breaking down offenses and defenses in the NBA or college basketball.If you can adequately evaluate pitchers and lineup factors, the rest should come easy. There is still a lot to focus on, but the spectrum is smaller.
- There Are Still Tons of Props – Propositions are a favorite market of many bettors, especially when it comes to football and more specifically, the Super Bowl. Propositions are weaker markets and excellent ones to attack for smaller stakes bettors looking to build a bankroll. MLB props are extremely common these days with almost all top sportsbooks offering them. Bets on if there will be a score in the first inning, the runs + hits + errors, and other options such as the number of hits + RBIs a batter will have and strikeout totals for pitchers.
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