NFL Advanced Statistics
NFL has benefited greatly from the computer information age. NFL advanced statistics are now an integral part of the game thanks to the advancement of mathematically statistical analysis. There are also additional tools, services and sites like NFL Savant that bettors can utilize to get an inside track on the game that goes beyond the box score which allows for a deeper study of the game and advanced football betting statistics. NFL bets’ profitability has increased tremendously with the help of big data as it allowed to find previously hidden betting opportunities. Bettors who take time to learn how to use NFL advanced analytics are reaping rewards. Read on…
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NFL Advanced Stats – Win Probability
NFL game win probability added is one of the coolest new age NFL advanced stats tools in the game today. The metric has been utilized for baseball for quite some time but was only recently introduced to football. It doesn’t help us much in terms of pre-match handicapping or player evaluation but is an excellent tool for evaluating probabilities for in-game situations.
NFL Win Probability estimates the chances of a team winning based on the game situation. For instance, if 3 points favor a team is up by 10 in the 3rd quarter with 8 minutes remaining, and they have the ball on their opponents’ 45-yard line with 7 yards to go on 3rd down – they would have a win probability of 0.894 or 89.4%.
Their model uses the Vegas odds, score differential, along the quarter amount of time remaining, yard line, down, and field position to calculate win probability. Several sites utilize this model, but the one available at Pro Football Reference is the simplest and most straightforward. The analytic is broken down even further here. Win Probability is excellent for analyzing halftime lines and has its use in live betting markets as well.
NFL Savant – Advanced Statistic Central
NFLSavant.com should be the go-to site for players when it comes to NFL advanced statistics. The best part about NFL Savant is that it’s entirely free and their interface is remarkably straightforward. Football betting statistics are available for every team and every play.
They’re not so heavy on individual player performances in comparison to PFF, but as far as relevant statistics surrounding play calling and coaching, there is no better option. Users can break down formations for both offense and defense and will be able to search and form own their customizable football stats for betting. This makes NFL Savant one of the best sites for NFL stats. A perfect example is its offensive rushing plays analytics which can be used in a variety of NFL bets.
NFL 2017 Offensive Rushing Plays Statistics
Pro Football Focus – Best Site For NFL Analytics
Pro Football Focus, abbreviated as PFF, is one of the best sites for NFL stats, for both the NFL and college sports. The service costs about $40 a season but is easily worth it, as it’s a valuable tool for any sports bettor. PFF offers a host of different statistics and some of the best minds in football. Most impressively is their grading system, which grades every player in the league and each team’s offensive, defensive and special team’s performance. Their grading system is the gold standard in the industry and is extremely thorough.
We won’t go over each of their individual stats in this article because we could go forever describing each of their metrics. They break down every play of every NFL game to give players the best insight into each contest and skill level of each player. Their ranking system is excellent concerning evaluation offensive and defense matchups and offers plenty of value in handicapping player and team propositions. If there is only one tool for football stats for betting that you’re going to purchase for football season, make it Pro Football Focus.
NFL Game Pass – Film Studies
Previously marketed as NFL Game Rewind, NFL Game Pass is an excellent tool for bettors who want to increase their knowledge of the game through film study. Game Pass allows bettors the ability to view full games in their entirety, on-demand, as soon as they are finished being played. Film study is an excellent tool for handicappers. For $99.99 per season, subscribers will be able to watch these rewinds all season long. They will gain access to coaches’ film that, including the All-22 and EndZone camera angles.
The best available feature at Game Pass has to be their condensed games. These cut out the commercials and stoppages between plays, allowing bettors to watch entire NFL games in about 30 minutes. The service may seem pricey at $99.99 per season, but if you’re betting a considerable amount each week on football, it’s well worth the price. If game film study helps you win just one or two bets a year, the service has paid for itself.
NFL Advanced Analytics Conclusion
It is worth noting that much of this information and data is utilized by the oddsmakers when they create their odds. As we’ve discussed elsewhere, the sportsbooks are extremely sharp when it comes to NFL sides and totals. However, bettors may still be able to gain an edge in the main markets if they find that the bookmakers aren’t valuing the teams correctly. These tools and statistics are particularly valuable for smaller NFL markets, such as player and team props. They are also can be excellent for futures wagers and season-long win totals. To learn more about pro football betting read our NFL Betting Guide.
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