NFL Moneyline Betting Guide
NFL moneyline bets have become one of the most attractive markets in US online sports betting.
We will break down precisely what a monyeline is, how to place an NFL moneyline bet online, and whether the bet being placed has a +EV or positive expectation for your bankroll.
These bets are available at every sportsbook that offers NFL markets, and here, we’ll show you the sites that offer the best bang for your buck.
Read on to master all the basic concepts and place the best wagers!
NFL Moneyline Explained
Best NFL Moneyline Betting Sites
what is the moneyline in NFL betting?
NFL moneyline betting is one of the easiest ways of betting on sports. With moneyline bets you simply need to choose the outright winner of the football game. The margin of victory doesn’t matter when betting NFL moneylines. Instead, to win, you only need to pick the team that ultimately wins the match.
When checking moneyline odds, the home team is always displayed on the bottom and the away team on the top.
Here is a screenshot of how you’d see moneyline bets at online sportsbooks:
Keep in mind that NFL moneylines are bets that offer a unique form of wagering that doesn’t take into account a point spread.
When wagering on moneylines, bettors are only concerned with who is going to win the game outright. It doesn’t matter if the team wins by one point or 20 points.
How are moneyline bets graded?
- If you take a team on the moneyline, and they win the game – your wager will be graded as a win.
- If you take a team to win on the moneyline, and they lose, the bet will be graded as a loss, regardless of the final score.
NFL Moneyline Example
Let’s say the New Orleans Saints are favored over the Carolina Panthers by 7 points. This equates to about a +250 moneyline for the Panthers as the underdog.
Since more bets will undoubtedly come in on the favorite and the sportsbook has to charge us vig so they can make a profit, the NFL moneyline odds for the Saints will be around -280 or higher.
|New Orleans Saints
Bettors wagering on the Saints would have to bet $280 to win $100. If this bet were graded as a winner, they would receive $380 back, including their $280 original stake and $100 in profit.
Those betting on the underdog Panthers would risk $100 to win $250. If they win their bet, the return would be $350, including their $100 original stake and $250 in profits.
As with all wagers offered by betting sites, there is vigorish added to each side of the bet. We can calculate the no-vig, which we explain more in-depth on our page about implied probability.
Does A Moneyline Include Overtime In The NFL?
Moneyline bets include overtime as well in the NFL. Unlike point spread wagers, moneyline bets will almost always have a definitive betting outcome.
Does A Moneyline Push On A Tie?
Yes. Moneyline bets push in the rare case where an NFL game goes to overtime and ends in a tie.
Where To Bet NFL Moneylines Online
Bettors will find much more variation in NFL moneyline odds compared to sides and totals – therefore, we recommend you open accounts on more than one site to hunt for the best numbers.
Here are the best sites to bet on NFL moneylines based on our experience:
|Deposit Bonus 100% Up To $2,500
|Deposit Bonus 125% Up To $1,250
|Deposit Bonus 50% Up To $1,000
Read Our Review Of The Best NFL Betting Sites
How To bet NFL Moneylines Online
If you’ve never placed a bet online, there is no need to worry. It’s pretty simple.
Follow these steps to get in the action in a matter of minutes:
Choose A Betting Site And Sign UpThere are endless options out there, but not all of them are legit. That’s why we’ve spent countless hours reviewing several online sportsbooks to come up with a recommendation.
At the moment, BetUS Sportsbook is the top betting site for NFL moneylines. But you can go with any of the sites we recommend on this page.
Fund Your Betting AccountOnce your betting account is open it’s time to make your first deposit.
You can use multiple methods to fund your account, like credit cards or cryptocurrencies. Choose the one you feel comfortable with and go for it.
Claim Your Welcome BonusWelcome bonuses are the reason why opening a new sports betting account is so exciting.
Online sportsbooks offer juicy bonuses to bet on the NFL for those who sign up and make their first deposit. Take advantage of them.
Find NFL Moneyline OddsBrowse through the site you signed up for and find the moneyline odds under the Football menu.
You’ll see all the upcoming games in chronological order and odds attached to each team.
Place Your Moneyline BetsClick on the odds you like to add the wager to your bet slip. Input the amount you want to invest, and click confirm to place the bet. It’s that simple!
Now sit back, relax, and enjoy the game. If your team wins you are up for a treat.
NFL Moneyline Betting Strategy
Now that you know how to place a wager and where to bet, it’s time to dive deep into NFL moneyline betting strategy.
Let’s start by analyzing some data and coming up with important conclusions.
In the chart below, we can see NFL point spread winners historical data, which offer us a comparison to moneylines.
It is worth noting that the above chart doesn’t factor in the key numbers of three and seven, but it does help us figure out a fair moneyline and how to attack the oddsmakers based on the probability of winning.
It’s also important to take the points when on the right sides of the three and seven.
For instance, the difference between +3.5 and +2.5 is massive. We would encourage a wager on the former but not on the latter, and the same goes for +7.5 and +6.5.
However, when we’re not crossing the 3 or 7 on the right side, moneyline odds become a lot more attractive.
NFL Underdog Betting Strategy
Based on this historical data, it shows us that betting NFL underdogs on the moneyline has some real profit potential, and there are plenty of profitable bets available if we can find the right NFL moneyline odds.
The data shows us that teams that are favored by 15 points are undefeated when it comes to winning on the moneyline or straight up.
Moneyline odds here will be enticing here, but historical averages show that none of these teams have sprung the upset in 20 years of data.
We can see a nice stream of blue dots elsewhere on the graph, however. Specifically, in the 12-15 point range, where upsets seem to be more common than most probably think.
Overall, though, there’s one common theme, moneyline odds on underdogs can be quite profitable in certain spots.
Expert NFL Moneyline Betting Tip
Betting on underdogs is the wager that offers the best long-term profit potential. One area where underdog wagering can be especially profitable is when the NFL point spread falls under 3 points. 1-2 points decide only 7 percent of games.
Taking the moneyline instead of a +2 line will rarely come back bite bettors and is a long-term profitable wagering subset, provided they grab moneyline odds at market value or better.
Breaking Even In NFL Moneyline Bets
The reason to target moneyline underdogs instead of favorites boils down to breakeven percentage.
The talent gap in the NFL is a narrow one. Sure, the best team is considerably better than the worst team, but this isn’t college football, where powerhouse teams have no chance of losing to smaller schools.
The playing field is a lot more even. For the most part, it’s much better to take the favorite on the point spread rather than the moneyline due to the risk of losing when you are laying a substantial amount to win a much smaller amount.
This isn’t just a general rule when it comes to betting NFL moneylines, but for all large favorites, in all markets.
NFL Moneylines vs. NFL Point Spreads
We’re not saying not to wager on favorites if you’re getting a price that beats the market or if you feel your odds of winning beat the breakeven percentage, but these scenarios just aren’t generally as plentiful compared to underdog moneylines.
For example, a -200 favorite has a break-even percentage of 66.67%. This is usually the moneyline odds for a favorite of 5-6 points.
To break even on a -200 bet, we need to win our wager about two-thirds of the time. If we flip these odds to +200, our breakeven percentage goes to just 33.33%.
This means we only need to wager one out of every three times to break even.
Should You Start Betting NFL Moneylines?
Betting NFL underdog moneylines is something that every bettor should have in their repertoire.
Taking the points is fine as well, but if the opportunity is there and bettors think an upset may be coming – they are fools not to take advantage.
One strategy is for sports gamblers to split their bet between the point spread and the moneyline as a way to hedge in case a side covers but doesn’t win.
Bettors can also be a little more aggressive and put two units on the moneyline and one on the point spread or be a bit more conservative and do the opposite.
It all depends on what the market is giving you when it comes to efficiency. If you spot a soft moneyline or one that plainly doesn’t match your projection regarding win percentage, fire away.
NFL Moneylines Bets FAQ
How does the moneyline work in NFL?
NFL moneylines are pretty simple. There will always be a favorite and an underdog to bet on. Choose the team you believe will win the game and place your wager. If your team wins, you win; if your team loses, you lose.
How often does the moneyline favorite win the NFL?
Historical data shows that moneyline favorites win around 65% of the time. Still, betting on NFL underdogscan be a profitable strategy in the long run if done right.
What’s the best site to bet on football moneylines?
The best site for NFL moneyline betting at the moment is BetUS. They offer the biggest welcome bonuses for those who sign up and deposit for the first time. They also have promotions for players all year long.
Why do NFL moneyline odds change?
NFL odds change on moneylines just like they would with any other bet. People bet enough money to move the line, or the information changes for the oddsmakers, and they need to make an adjustment.
What is the bookie’s edge on NFL moneylines?
NFL moneylines are not a particularly high vigorish bet. However, it is close to -110 or the standard fee that betting sites charge for straight wagers on sides and totals.
To simplify it, don’t worry about the bookie’s edge, but look if you can find a price that beats your numbers or the numbers of betting sites.
Should you bet on an NFL underdog of +2.5 or lower or bet on the moneyline?
If we look at the point spread at +2.5, that’s about +125 on the NFL moneyline. At +3, it’s around +140.
If you can beat or match these moneyline prices, then you can bet them on the moneyline, but for the most part, you want to be looking to bet these on the point spread.
However, when the underdog price goes to +2 or lower, then we need to move to the moneyline. Your profitability at +2 or lower will be much better wagering on the underdog moneyline rather than the point spread.