NBA Advanced Stats
NBA advanced stats have changed the game. It allows bettors and fans to analyze basketball numbers through objective evidence and within a specific situation.
Most NBA betting fans look at raw numbers to place their bets. With the overwhelming improvement in data both in quality and quantity, that approach is now outdated.
While there isn’t a perfect stat, the proper interpretation of information will give bettors an edge over any sportsbook.
If you want to learn more about NBA advanced statistics, keep reading this article. We will lead you to the stats that will provide the advantage you are looking for when utilizing advanced statistics.
More About NBA Advanced Statistics
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NBA Advanced Stats Explained
You can find four types of NBA advanced stats. They can be classified as:
- Offensive stats
- Defensive stats
- Player stats
- Team stats
With the proper application, each stat will give you enough information about players’ performances, good or bad matchups for a team, or how to adjust when a player is missing from the lineup.
Let’s take a look at two of the main groups to understand how basketball stats work.
NBA Advanced Team Statistics
Advanced team stats will show you a bigger picture than wins and losses to determine if a team is genuinely good or not.
It will tell you a detailed story of the things they do and don’t do so well.
Points Per Possession (PPP) is an excellent team stat. Instead of just looking at the points per game average, PPP will tell you how efficiently a team is on offense.
Rebound Rate or rebound percentage is also another one great to follow. Rebound rate calculates the percentage of available rebounds for a team. It gives a broader picture of how many second chances a squad allows every game.
NBA Advanced Player Statistic
The NBA advanced player stats will lead bettors to see how important a player is for their team’s performance.
Basically, it is about how valuable a player is when he’s on the floor and if his absence will make a significant difference. Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Win Share are good ways to start.
How To Read NBA Stats Like A Pro
Understanding how to read basketball statistics is an essential skill that allows you to see how players and teams perform in a game.
As we mentioned before, this is especially important when betting on the NBA. With the right analysis, you can extract more value from your wagers.
The following are the typical basketball stats that you will find in every NBA box score.
|Field goals made
|Field goals attempted
|Field goal percentage
|Free throws made
|Free throws attempted
|Free throw percentage
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Best Advanced Stats For NBA Betting
True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
True Shooting Percentage is an accurate measure of a player in terms of his offensive efficiency. Instead of factoring just two-point field-goals, it factors in free throw percentage and three-point field goal percentage.
Field-goal percentage is perhaps one the most misleading NBA player advanced stats in the minds of many fans and bettors.
Evaluating players or teams based on the traditional field-goal percentage stat that the NBA uses has long been outdated.
One of the biggest issues with using traditional field-goal percentage statistics is it discounts a player’s contributions at the free-throw line.
If a player is getting the line more often, that equals more opportunities for scoring and, therefore, more points.
Why Is TS% Important?
The metric has a ton of value for evaluating the effectiveness of individual players and teams as a whole.
It offers hidden value for those who look beyond the traditional numbers the NBA has used to determine which players or teams are shooting the ball efficiently.
It’s one of the best indicators of true offensive performance on the court. The true shooting percentage is extra useful to analyze perimeter players because a center typically doesn’t shoot a lot of three-pointers during the season.
Assist To Turnover Ratio (AST/TO)
Assist to Turnover Ratio helps us determine that teams or players who turn the ball over often won’t score as many points as those who pass the ball productively.
Teams who distribute the ball more productively will have a higher ratio compared to those that are careless with their passes.
Turnovers are deadly in the game of basketball since they offer easy baskets in the other direction and can change the momentum of the game in an instant.
The teams turn the ball over less often and have more assists are usually near the top of the standings. Teams that are less efficient are typically near the bottom of the standings. It’s the same each and every year.
The best aspect of this advanced metric is that it doesn’t need to be utilized with any other statistic. It works wonderfully to give us an excellent bead on a team’s offensive abilities without consulting other data.
NBA Pace Factor
Pace Factor is one of the best advanced NBA stats to evaluate a team’s pace of play and possessions.
This statistic won’t do much for bettors in terms of head-to-head matchups or point spread handicapping but is one of the stats that is paramount for NBA totals betting.
It’s pretty simple. Pace Factor measures the average number of possessions by a team in a game. Possessions are defined by a team’s offensive possession of the ball.
Each possession ends when a team scores, loses the ball via turnover, or by committing a foul or violation.
Importance Of Pace Factor
It should be easy to see how this statistic can help gamblers when evaluating totals. Teams that have more possessions will score more points per contest while those on the lower end will score fewer points.
However, the sample size with this statistic is important. Looking at last year’s numbers at the start of a season can be deceiving, particularly if they had changes in their front office and player personnel.
Teams that have kept much of the same regime and roster from the previous year can rely upon more from last year’s numbers.
Once you start using the pace factor as a variable when capping NBA totals, you won’t ever stop utilizing the statistic.
NBA Free-Throw Rate (FTR)
Free-Throw Rate ties into some of the above statistics, but at its core, it measures the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts.
The stat can set to account for a team’s or player’s free throws attempted based on the number of field goals attempted or FTA/FGA. The stat itself has an abbreviation of FTR.
The metric delves deeper into offensive stats. Teams that have a faster pace of play will increase their scoring chances (and possibly get to the line more).
Just because a team gets to the line more doesn’t mean they’re sinking their buckets from the charity stripe. Free-throw rate allows us to see which teams and players are getting to the line and converting their attempts.
Free-throw attempts aren’t worth much unless teams are making their shots at the line. Thanks to Free-Throw Rate, we can tell which teams and players are getting to the line often and converting.
NBA Rebound Rate
The rebound rate is the percentage of rebounds (offensive and defensive) a player or the team capture during the game.
Rebound rate by itself might not tell you much about the game but by pairing it with the pace factor, for example, you’ll notice that teams with lots of possession tend to attack more, therefore, they generate more rebound opportunities.
Offensive rebounds are an interesting NBA stat for bettors because the more offensive rebounds the team accomplishes the more opportunity they have to score.
Think of offensive rebounds as the team buying itself a second chance to score with each rebound the win.
Defensive rebounds are interesting too. They measure how effective the team playing defense can stop the other team from winning that second chance to score.
Defensive rebounds are essential to analyze the defensive behavior and effectiveness of any team you would like to place a wager on.
Win Shares (WS)
Essentially, win shares measure how valuable a player is, based on wins. It estimates an individual contribution to their team’s win total.
The formula is complex, and there is no need to know how it works. The result is what’s important here. Any advanced stats site will have a column for each player’s win share numbers.
Points Per Possession (PPP)
The PPP stat is one of the most specific ones because its value is getting a lot of recognition lately.
Bettors can see how many points the Houston Rockets give up to pick-and-roll ball-handlers or how many points per possession LeBron James scores in any situation.
The points per possession stat is good when handicapping game totals or NBA prop bets to a specific player. It came to replace the raw points per game average used over the last 50 years.
Assists Percentage (AST%)
The formula to get the assists percentage is not complicated. It involves assists, minutes played, team field goals, and individual field goals.
In fact, this is barely an advanced stat considering most analysts have used this metric for years.
But it becomes important when talking about team assists. The best assist percentage team usually is a well-coached squad, willing to share the ball until they find the highest percentage shot.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
For years, field-goal percentage was the go-to-stat to find out if a team was shooting well. The effective field-goal percentage is the FG percentage stat on steroids because it assesses three-point attempts.
The eFG gives more value to the three-point shot because it is worth more, obviously.
Let’s say a player shoots ten times from inside the arc and nails five. He gets ten points. Another player tries ten shoots from beyond the arc, drilling five. He would score 15 points on the same eFG percentage.
Offensive Rating (ORtg)
This one is simple. Offensive Rating is the number of points produced by a play in 100 possessions.
The great thing about this ORtg stat is that it takes away the play’s pace and minutes played per game.
The number, however, favors big men with a high shooting percentage. It helps explain how efficient the player is on offense throughout the season.
Are NBA Advanced Analytics Reliable?
All of these metrics are excellent tools to incorporate into your NBA handicapping, but it’s important not to rely solely on them or any other NBA betting stats when wagering on pro basketball events.
Oddsmakers are using many of them when they build their numbers. However, you may still have an edge in the main markets if you find that the bookmakers aren’t valuing the teams accurately.
These NBA advanced statistics are especially valuable for smaller NBA markets, like player props. They also can be excellent for NBA futures and season-long win totals.
Anybody interested can find the actual NBA advanced metrics at Basketball-Reference.com.