NBA Advanced Statistics

NBA Advanced StatisticsBasketball bettors don’t often take into account NBA advanced statistics when evaluating their daily card, they’re missing the benefit from looking at new-age stats that go beyond the box score. Too many NBA gamblers focus on situational handicapping. We still recommend watching as much basketball as possible, because unlike baseball, where merely viewing statistics can give us a better picture of how games play out – basketball needs a more hands-on approach. We’ll go over some of the top advanced metrics that bettors need to be aware of to get that extra edge when handicapping.

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NBA Advanced Stats – True Shooting Percentage

True Shooting Percentage is an accurate measure of a player in terms of his offensive efficiency. Instead of factoring just two-point field-goals, it factors in free throw percentage and three-point field goal percentage. Field-goal percentage is perhaps the most misleading analytics in the minds of many NBA fans and bettors. Evaluating players or teams based on the traditional field-goal percentage stat that the NBA uses has long been outdated. One of the biggest issues with using traditional field-goal percentage statistics is it discounts a player’s contributions at the free-throw line.

NBA Advanced Statistics – Win ProbabilityIf a player is getting the line more often, that equals more opportunities for scoring and, therefore, more points. The metric has a ton of value for evaluating the effectiveness of individual players and teams as a whole. It offers hidden value for those who look beyond the traditional numbers the NBA has used to determine which players or teams are shooting the ball efficiently. It’s one of the best indicators of true offensive performance on the court. The true shooting percentage is extra useful to analyze perimeter players because a center typically doesn’t shoot a lot of three-pointers during the season.

Assist To Turnover Ratio In NBA Games

Assist to Turnover Ratio helps us determine that teams or players who turn the ball over often won’t score as many points as those who pass the ball productively. Teams who distribute the ball more productively will have a higher ratio compared to those that are careless with their passes. Turnovers are deadly in the game of basketball since they offer easy baskets in the other direction and can change the momentum of the game in an instant.

NBA advanced statisticsThe teams turn the ball over less often and have more assists are usually near the top of the standings. Teams that are less efficient are typically near the bottom of the standings. It’s the same each and every year. The best aspect of this metric is that it doesn’t need to be utilized with any other statistic. It works wonderfully to give us an excellent bead on a team’s offensive abilities without consulting other data.

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NBA Pace Factor

nba advanced statisticsPace Factor is one of the best metrics to evaluate a team’s pace of play and possessions. This statistic won’t do much for bettors in terms of head-to-head matchups or point spread handicapping but is one of the stats that is paramount for totals betting. The statistic is broken down extensively by the guys over at CaptainCalculator.com. It’s pretty simple. Pace Factor measures the average number of possessions by a team in a basketball game. Possessions are defined by a team’s offensive possession of the ball.

Each possession ends when a team scores, loses the ball via turnover, or by committing a foul or violation. It should be easy to see how this statistic can help gamblers when evaluating totals. Teams that have more possessions will score more points per contest while those on the lower end will score fewer points.

However, the sample size with this statistic is important. Looking at last year’s numbers at the start of a season can be deceiving, particularly if they had changes in their front office and player personnel. Teams that have kept much of the same regime and roster from the previous year can rely upon more from last year’s numbers. Once you start using pace factor as a variable when capping NBA totals, you won’t ever stop utilizing the statistic.

NBA Free-Throw Rate

Free-Throw Rate ties into some of the above statistics, but at its core, it measures the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts. The stat can set to account for a team’s or player’s free throws attempted based on the number of field goals attempted or FTA/FGA. The stat itself has an abbreviation of FTR. The metric further delves deeper into offensive stats. Teams that have a faster pace of play will increase their scoring chances (and possibly get to the line more) as we mentioned above with Pace Factor, but that doesn’t tell us the whole story.

NBA advanced statisticsJust because a team gets to the line more doesn’t mean they’re sinking their buckets from the charity stripe. Free-throw rate allows us to see which teams and players are getting to the line and converting their attempts. Free-throw attempts aren’t worth much unless teams are making their shots at the line. Thanks to Free-Throw Rate, we can tell which teams and players are getting to the line often and converting.

NBA Rebound Rate

The rebound rate is the percentage of rebounds (offensive and defensive) a player or the team capture during the game. Rebound rate by itself might not tell you a much about the game but pair it with pace factor, for example, you’ll notice that teams with lots of possession tend to attack more, therefore, they generate more rebound opportunities. Offensive rebounds are a relevant NBA stat for bettors because the more offensive rebounds the team accomplishes the more opportunity they have to score.

NBA Advanced Statistics – Win ProbabilityThink of offensive rebounds as the team buying itself a second chance to score with each rebound the win. Defensive rebounds are interesting, they measure how effective the team playing defense can stop the other team from winning that second chance to score. Defensive rebounds are essential to analyze the defensive behavior and effectiveness of any team you would like to place a wager on.

NBA Advanced Analytics – Conclusion

All of these metrics are excellent tools to incorporate into your NBA handicapping, but it’s important not to rely solely on them when betting the NBA. Oddsmakers are using many of them when they build their numbers. However, you may still have an edge in the main markets if you find that the bookmakers aren’t valuing the teams accurately. These NBA advanced statistics are especially valuable for smaller NBA markets, like player props. They are also can be excellent for future wagers and season-long win totals. To learn more about NBA betting don’t miss our NBA Betting Guide.