Premier League Betting
English Premier League betting could look daunting on the surface if you’re a beginner. However, once you learn to analyze the stats, odds, and all the factors that play a part in a game, you will be right at home.
If you’re familiar with online soccer betting, it won’t take long to learn the intricacies of betting the EPL and to become a break-even bettor, at the very least.
We’re here to help you understand the nitty-gritty of wagering on one of the most competitive domestic leagues in Europe, the English Premier League, right from the absolute basics to advanced concepts.
Ready? Let’s get the ball rolling!
More About Betting On The Premier League
Top Online Sportsbooks To Bet On The Premier League 2023
How Does The Premier League work?
There are 20 teams in the league, and each team plays 38 games every season. The team with the highest number of points takes home the prestigious league trophy.
If two teams end up with the same amount of points, the overall Goal Difference (GD) decides the winner.
English Premier League Champions And European Qualification
The teams that finish in the top 4 qualify for the biggest soccer club tournament in Europe, the UEFA Champions League (UCL) for the next season.
Following that, the 5th team on the table qualifies for the second biggest continental cup, Europa League (UEL), along with the teams that win domestic cups in the country.
The League Cup (which also goes by the name of Carabao Cup) and the FA Cup also have some added motivation for clubs. If winners of these tournaments finish in the top 4, they get spots in the UCL, and their UEL spots are allotted to the teams finishing below five as per the pecking order.
Premier League Relegation
The relegation bomb knocks out the last three teams in the EPL. When all 38 games are finished, the teams that finish on 18th, 19th, and 20th get demoted to the lower tier league of English Football, the Championship.
And to fill in their three spots, the top 2 teams in the Championship get promoted to the Premier League.
The one spot that stays up for grabs is for the sides that finish 3rd to 6th in the table. These teams compete in the playoffs, and the winner gets the final remaining spot.
How These Factors Influence Team Performance
For example, let’s say Chelsea are going to play a 7th placed team on the league table, in the middle of the week for their FA Cup tie, and are playing one of the big six teams to fight for the Champions League spot.
You might think they would be tempted to field a strong lineup for the FA Cup fixture, but if the fight for the CL spot is something team always prior over domestic cups.
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How to place your bets in the Premier League
Before we delve into more details, it is about time we walk you through the entire process of placing a bet step-by-step so that placing your first bet on the EPL is a breeze
- Research and find out an ideal sportsbook: Your first motive should be to find an ideal website that matches your expectations and gives you the best possible rewards—and quite importantly, is reliable. If you want to save yourself from the mental gymnastics of finding an ideal sportsbook, jump straight into our top picks in the review section.
- Try to understand how the soccer betting market works: try to place hypothetical bets based on different sites and their offerings and make sure you record each of your wagers. You can look into the collected data and check how well you’re betting and what areas you can improve.
- Create a budget and add funds to your account: Set up a bankroll management strategy and pledge not to go beyond it. The betting dynamics depend a lot on your location. Our recommendation is to go with cryptocurrencies if you live in the US. If you’re an international player, eWallets, such as Neteller and Skrill, are better options.
- Let the bets (good times) roll: There’s no coming back once you’ve placed your bets. So, always be careful before you press the submit button that you bet on the correct selection for the amount you want. Once you have placed your bets, it is set back and watch EPL football and hope for lady luck to shine on you.
English Premier League Odds Explained
A soccer game opens the door to an ocean of online soccer betting options. Therefore, the possibilities of wagering options span from betting on the match tomorrow to season-long wagers.
The idea of short-term betting does come alluring to the punters but the long-term bets do have their unparallel magnetism as well.
Winner of the league, highest goal scorer, number of goals, a clean sheet, the first manager to be sacked, are some of the many bets you can place throughout the season.
Let’s take a glance at some of the most popular bets punters fancy in the online soccer betting space:
Match outcome (1X2)
As simple as the name sounds, people bet on the outcome of the game—a home win, draw, or the away win. For example, let’s say there’s a game between Manchester City and Arsenal. This is how the odds could look for the game.
- Manchester City: -300
- Arsenal: +489
- Draw: +437
Manchester City are the favorites, and you bet wager $300 on them, and the match ends in a 3-1 win for Man City. You’d net $100 on from the bet, and your stake $300 would be returned to you.
If you bet $100 on an Arsenal win and they end up winning the game by any margin, you would net $489, and your stake would be returned.
Premier League Proposition Bets
Proposition bets are placed on the events that take place in a game instead of just the conclusion. A lot can happen in a game and bets are up for grabs for each of those events.
It could be the next scorer, the number of goals they would score, the next player to get booked or any event yo you can think of in the game
Think of proposition bets as “in-game” bets for a better understanding.
In this type of betting, bettors guess the number of goals involved in the game. It could be either for the entire contest or a particular side. The most common total fancied by the punters is Over/Under 2.5 goals.
The average number of goals scored in a premier league game 2018/19 season was 2.82 goals per game, with 32% game finishing over 3.5 goals.
To understand this better, take the example of a game between Aston Villa and Wolves. Here’s how the over and under odds could look for the game:
- Over 2.5 (+150)
- Under 2.5 (-101)
Let’s suppose the game finishes at in 1-0 win for Wolves. If you bet $101 for under 2.5 goals, you’d net $100 from the game. In case you bet on over 2.5 goals and the game finishes 3.1, you’d make a profit of $150 on a bet of $100.
Again, as the name suggests, the stronger team in the game gets handicapped as the punters wager on the winning margin for either of the teams.
Suppose there’s a game between Chelsea and West Ham. As Chelsea are clear favorites, they’d be handicapped by 1.5 goals. So the match outcome is evenly balanced between the two teams. This is how the odds could look like for the game.
- Chelsea -1.5 (-123)
- West Ham +1.5 (-101)
If you stake on a Chelsea win in this one, they would need to win by at least 2 goals to give you full returns. So, they would have to win with a scoreline like 3-1, 2-0, 4-2, etc.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Does it even need an explanation? If you think both teams will score, you place a BTTS bet. You can also bet on the against the idea of both sides to score if you think the game is going to be goalless.
However, don’t be surprised if you find another bet mixed with this one. For example, there could also be a bet along the lines of “both teams to score and Liverpool to score the first goal” or “both teams to score and the total to be under 2.5 goals”.
Player Based Bets
These are placed on the events of the game that are impacted a certain player instead of the entire team. It could be a goal scored, injury, card, or anything you can think of (as long as it is making sense with the theme).
Let’s take the example of anytime scorer bet for a game between Arsenal and Newcastle. Here’s how anytime scorer odds could look like.
Not all games as predictable as people would like. For example, Arsenal have an infamous reputation of conceding late goals and you’re never very sure if they would get a win out of the tie.
In the premier league season of 2019/20, you can see their number of losses are very low but there is an alarming number of draws. So, in a case like that, double chance betting gives you an option to bet on two outcomes of the game instead of one.
For example, let’s say there’s a game between Brighton and Spurs. The double betting options for this would be:
- Spurs win or draw
- Brighton win or draw
- Spurs win or Brighton win
Premier League Live betting
Unlike traditional betting, live betting gives you the chance to bet on the games in real-time. As other bets are placed before the game, this bet could be placed while the game is taking place.
There could be options to bet on the next player to be booked, next goal to be scored, team to take the next shot, next corner, etc.
English Premier League Betting Tips
Apart from stats and the different bet types you can make, many things fall into place for you to grow your bankroll.
Given below are some essential tips that you must keep a check on before you place your bets.
Betting Tip #1Check A Team’s Form And The Number Of Players Available
For example, without Mohammed Salah, Liverpool is likely to score fewer goals, or are likely to concede a goal(s) in the absence of Virgil Van Dijk.
Betting Tip #2Check Both Teams’ Records At Home And Away
Some teams have massive home and road splits. They are different sides away from their home pitch.
Betting Tip #3Watch Games Or At Least Highlights
See how much a team’s playing style is in line with the nature of losses/wins. Sometimes, teams may lose a game because of an individual mental mistake or goalkeeper error.
The score-line doesn’t always show an accurate reflection of the match in such cases.
Betting Tip #4Track Injuries
Injuries also have a massive role in the game. Teams that lack quality depth are profoundly affected by an injury crisis.
You can keep tabs on injuries by checking the Twitter feeds of Ben Dinnery. He is known as the injury guru of the Premier League.
The 2018-2019 English Premier League Season
The 2018-19 EPL season had one of the most historic title races of all time. Imagine a team finishing with 97 points on the table and still missing out on the league title.
The season taught us many things. One interesting take away was Brendan Rodgers’ redemption of Leicester City as soon as he came to the helm.
Ever since his arrival, Leicester has been in spectacular form, and they’ve carried on the same form in the following season.
Everton and West Ham have turned out to be very ambitious and have spent an awful lot of money in the transfer market.
They’re mostly found in the vicinity of the top 6 in the table, and the nature of their signings shows a lot of promise for the seasons to come.
Betting On English Premier League Teams
The only thing that can bring them down is injuries at the back. As we saw at the beginning of this season, the absence of Laporte and Stones made them lose a lot of essential points.
Another important factor about their offensive output is the presence of Kevin De Bryune. As long as he’s there on the pitch, they would be no shortage of chances to be created.
Put a Kun Aguero in that attack, and you can expect at least two goals from their game.
Liverpool has one of the most balanced teams in the league. They’re arguably the best defensive side in the division as of now. Also, their front three is one of the most feared trios across Europe.
So, most of their games involve over two goals with a clean sheet. Also, their home stadium is one of the most difficult stadiums to play in.
So, 90% of their home games swing the odds heavily in their favor.
After Liverpool, I rate their defense to be the second-best in the league.
One thing that hurts this team the most is the injuries.
With their squad depth being very thin, even if one of their starting players gets hit by an injury, it starts reflecting in their performances.
They might look like a regular-mid table team in most games.
However, don’t be alarmed if you seem them playing like Jose’s Mourinho’s Champions League-winning Inter Milan when they play against the top 6 teams.
Wolves usually play a low block against significant oppositions, and those games are mostly low-scoring.
The Cherries are one of those teams that play like two different teams throughout the season.
One beastly fluid-attacking squad at home, and a team bereft of any mojo, away from home.
The newly-promoted Blades have started their season on a high.
Their ultimate strength is their backline. They have one of the best young keepers in the league.
This is another team that usually gets involved in low scoring affairs.
Arsenal is just Arsenal. Not trying to disrespect the club here, but their inconsistency and defensive fragility hasn’t changed a bit over the last few years.
You can see them play like prime Arsenal of the early 2000s in one half and turn into a championship side in the other half.
Arsenal is one strange team, and the best advice one can give you in terms of betting is to think thrice before you back them to win a game (especially if it is away from home).
The Blues are lately going through a transition period. For the first time in a long time, it appears like they have got themselves a manager for a long-term project.
They have loads of exciting young talent that is ready to impress.
All in all, as it looks like, Chelsea is only going to get better from here with their young players maturing coupled with a few signings in the coming transfer windows.
Soccer Betting Odds
English Premier League betting odds are mostly in three forms: Fractional Odds, Decimal Odds, and American (Moneyline) Odds.
The decimal odds are most popular in parts of Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. As compared to fractional odds, these are pretty easy to understand. Higher the number, higher is the return.
The formula to calculate stake is as simple as this:
Total return = Stake X Decimal Odd number
For example, if the odds for the winner in a game between Liverpool and Wolves as follows:
- Liverpool: 2.00
- Wolves: 9.00
It means, every $1 wagered on Liverpool would return $2, while the wager for wolves would yield $9.
You’d usually find these odds on British betting sites. They’re written in the form of fractions (10/1 odds), and an ‘x/y’ odd is pronounced as “x-to-y.”
If the dollar is the currency, x/y odds mean for every y dollars wagered, you’d get x dollars.
Here’s the formula to calculate the returns:
Total return = Stake x Decimal Odd number
For example, if you stake $10 at 4/1, your total return would be $50 ($40 profit+$10 stake).
American (Moneyline) odds
These odds are popular in the United States. They also go by the name of Moneyline odds and they seem very different than the ones we’ve mentioned above.
These are in the form of minus (-) and plus (+). Minus indicates the favorites while plus indicates underdogs. Farther the numbers are from zero, the higher is the extent of them being favorites/underdogs.
Minus (-) odds indicate the amount you have to wager to win $100 while the plus (+) indicates the amount you’d make with every $100 wagered. Just to be clear, you do get the money in your original stake returned to you.
Here’s an example:
Here, the bookie is favoring Manchester City to win the game. So, if you bet $560 on City and you’d end up winning, the total payout would be $660 (560+100).
How Odds Could Change And Early Bids Make A Difference?
Long term bets could be on any event that’s going to happen sometime in the future. It could be after a few months, even the end of the season— the golden boot winner, team to finish in top 4, league title winners, teams to get relegated, managers to get sacked, to name a few.
As the season progresses, the odds for these events could change as per the performance of players and teams. So, early bets could yield excellent value if you bet them early enough.
For example, if a newly promoted team is coming to the league and you find their quality very inferior to other teams in the top division, you can place an early bet for that team to get relegated.
When a team goes through a lot of changes, especially in management, it takes time to settle down. So, in a situation like this, the best advice would be to refrain from the idea of wagering.
Long-term bets can be profitable if you understand the game well. The best part about it is the fact that the return of investment could be staggering if you make a wager at long odds and it hits.
English Premier League Betting Stats Analysis
Do you notice the number of touches an attacker takes in the opposition’s half? Or the goal-scoring chances created by every team in a given game week? It’s understandable if you don’t watch every game.
Stats mean a lot, but sometimes they can misguide you too. So, you must know how to read the stats correctly. A bigger sample size might misguide you at times.
Of course, that data is relevant to some extent, but how the football market has made the leagues so volatile in recent times can see teams changing drastically within years.
The crux of the matter is, don’t give much attention to overall stats that have a significant sample size of teams from the past. Your decisions should be based on how the team has functioned in the past 3-4 seasons (max) and how they have done recently.
Let’s focus on the stats that are genuinely influential and can help you make better decisions while you place your bets.
xG, GD, GF, GA
Don’t be scared off by these bizarre terms. They carry a lot of relevant information. Let’s be clear about the words first.
- xG: Expected goals – The number of goals that are expected from a team in a game/season.
- GF: Goals for – Goals scored by a team.
- GA: Goals against – Goals conceded by the team
- GD: Goals difference – Goals scored subtracted by Goals against (GF-GA).
Expected goals give you a fair idea of the attacking input of a team. For example, you can compare the xGs between two teams and can get a rough idea of the number of goals scored by both sides.
Where Do We Get This Data From?
Understat! It’s easy to analyze, and you can get much more than just xGs and Goals scored at the website.
You can separately analyze the home and away performance of a team—not to mention that you have the filters to set the time range.
Another exciting thing about this website is the fact that you can go into details about how often a team scores or concedes with set-pieces, open chances, errors, etc.
Form is fundamental. Sometimes teams could hit a purple patch and make a long stretch of good results while sometimes teams can do the absolute opposite.
Manchester United of 2018/19 season is a perfect example of this. They started the season horribly under Jose Mourinho. Suddenly Ole Solskjaer took the wheel, and the winds of change brought the team back to the winning ways.
They extended him long term and boom! They almost forgot how to score, and struggled to make their way into the top 4 of the table. Home and away factors also play a significant role sometimes.
Where To Get This Data From?
Soccerstats! This website is stocked with more data than you can digest. Its data could range from a team’s record in the last eight games to the previous 80 games (or even more).
One of the best things about it is that it has a section that is tailored (I think so) for the bettors only. The color codes make it even more comprehensive!