Pay For Sports Picks
Paying for sports picks from “professional” handicapper is one of the most common issues bettors face in today’s sports betting landscape. The quotations are absolutely necessary because the vast majority of these guys are losing sports bettors. In fact, many of them likely don’t bet at all hence paid sports betting tips have no value and are not worthy spending money on.
We empathize with those that decide to go the route of paid sports picks. It’s not easy to win, so when someone comes along preaching that they “have a lifetime winning percentage over 60 percent,” we can see why that’s enticing. We also offer an alternative in Free Sports Betting Picks we encourage you to check out.
It seems so simple. If you don’t have the time or expertise to bet sports, well, you can trust a professional. For a fee, they will provide you with winning picks and you can beat the bookies with little to no work. Does that sound too good to be true? Yes? Well, you’re right. Pay-per-pick services, touts, tipsters, scamdicappers, whatever you want to call them, have a long, but notorious history in the sports betting industry.
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Never Pay For Sports Picks
We can’t say with certainty that there aren’t any honest touts out there that are selling winning sports betting picks. Nevertheless, 99% of these services selling betting picks can’t be trusted. The vast majority don’t post long-term records, let alone all the other issues mentioned above. That should be all the information you need to stay away right there.
There’s no substitute for doing your own work on the games you bet, but if you’re desperate for some picks from more experienced bettors or a discussion on the day’s games, there are plenty of other alternatives. We post free picks regularly at Safest Betting Sites, and we’ll never ask for a penny in return. There are also more than a dozen viable sports betting forums for American sports bettors alone.
Paid Betting Tips – The Reality
This is the number one way that touts manipulate their records. Many times, they will keep “honest” records of their actual selections, but record the best possible line that appeared anywhere as the odds that they bet. For instance, say they give out an NFL pick for the week, the New York Giants -7. By the time they release the play, the odds have moved to -7.5. Are you still betting the same team as your service? Sure. Are you getting significantly worse price due to a market move? You bet.
If this happened rarely, well, it wouldn’t be as big of a deal. We still doubt the ability of the 99 percent of touts to win long term, but if they were indeed giving you plays and anticipating line moves correctly, then they might be worth something. However, if they could do that, why would they be giving their picks out for free? They would make far more betting before the moves if they could anticipate the market. If you talk to anyone who has used a service, it’s typically a race to get the plays in before the line moves. The line may also have already moved across the entire market even before the pick has been released to a tout’s customers.
A common tactic among touts is to send out their picks with the best odds available in the current market, but record the best possible line when it comes to their win-loss and units won record. Surely, if we went back and took the best possible line that existed for the side were bet on that would certainly help our records, to say the least. They’re not getting the best price. They’re just telling you they did, or they’re manipulating their records.
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Paid Sports Picks – Past & Future
The pay-per-pick and tout industry began to flourish in the 1970s and 80s. Legalized sports betting in Nevada helped grow sports betting nationwide. Soon, phone lines opened up offer sports betting picks for a fee. Of course, the voices on the other end of these phone lines promised elite win rates. All you needed to do was give them your credit card for a pay-per-minute charge and/or a percentage of your bet, provided you win.
These services made millions. None of these touts had proof of long-term success or any data to back up the win rates they claimed to have. Many were outright scams and were run by people that had little or no knowledge of how to bet sports. Some gave out alternating picks on the same game, one side to east coast callers, and the other to the west coast. Fast-forward to the internet age, and touts have a new platform to sell picks. This has led to higher competition between services, which has decreased in overall pricing, but the quality hasn’t changed.
Verifying the records of these guys hasn’t gotten much easier despite the advancements of technology. Many of them still lie about their records or mislead players about their overall win rate. An extremely small percentage agree to independent verification. That brings us to the biggest problem with most touts.
You Truly Don’t Know Who They Are
A tout can say that he has a team behind him that works around the clock helping to pick you winners, but there is no real way for you to know the truth. For all you know, the guy you’re paying $600 for a season of NFL picks is sitting in his mom’s basement and watching Chris Berman for his handicapping picks. So few touts have records that go back multiple seasons. However, even those that do have winning records going back some years are still hard to trust. In the vast majority of cases, there is no way to verify this data.
In summary, you’re paying hundreds, if not thousands of dollars to people you know only through the internet (or the rare case over the phone) without out any actual verification that they win at sports betting.
Tout Industry – You Can’t Afford To Trust Them
The worst part about the tout industry is that it preys on the beginning or loser sports gambler. Intermediate and advanced sports bettors are far too wise to give their money to touts. They need to prey on the downtrodden, losing bettor who needs a win. They often decide to buy picks after a prolonged losing streak themselves, which only makes matters worse. Some even double their bets or bet more with services, because, hey, “I’ve got a professional sports bettor giving me picks.”
Don’t be one of these people. Especially when you’re starting your betting career, building a bankroll is especially vital. If you have a few hundred dollars to spend on picks, it’s much better off going into your bankroll instead. The money is much better utilized when it’s being used to clear deposit bonuses at online sportsbooks.
It Doesn’t Make Any Sense
If you could consistently hit 60 percent or greater when betting sports, there is absolutely no reason at all that you would be going around selling your picks for profit. Imagine beating able to beat Pinnacle Sports, the largest sportsbook in the world. They almost never limit players, because their sharp players help keep their odds efficient. They take million dollar bets on some events.
If you could beat Pinnacle and the other large bookmakers in the world, why would you ever give your plays away for several hundred, or even thousands of dollars? The whole concept of selling sports betting picks if you’re a winning player is fundamentally flawed. Beating the biggest sportsbooks in the world isn’t easy. Hitting 60% of your bets in the long term likely isn’t possible, but if you could do so, why would you ever give away your secrets?
Sportsbooks Adjust So Stay Head Of The Game
Sportsbooks adjust. The sharp bettors are always one step ahead of the game, which is why they shape betting markets with their wagers, but stuff that worked ten years ago at most offshore books doesn’t work now. Those who are truly winning big aren’t out there peddling their picks for a few hundred bucks. Sportsbooks are so quick to cut players wagering limits these days. The better you become at betting sports, the tougher it gets.
To consider buying picks from someone, you ultimately have to convince yourself that they would rather sell you winning picks than maximize their earnings betting sports. Touts aren’t the most intelligent people, but they’re not this stupid. The reason they are selling you picks is relatively straightforward. They are trying to make a business out of selling suckers their plays because they can’t win at betting sports themselves.