NFL Futures

NFL Futures Betting

NFL futures bet is a single wager placed on a future event that won’t be decided right away. In this betting market, you can place a wager on which team will each of the two NFL conferences or each of the six divisions or Super Bowl.

Futures markets have benefited from the expansion of online gambling perhaps more than any other sport. NFL betting has grown exponentially in recent years as betting sites have added more markets aside from Super Bowl and conference futures.

Difference Between NFL Futures And Straight Bets

Futures are different from straight bets on sides and totals due to the definitiveness of their results (no pushes). They also generally take place over a considerably longer time frame compared to traditional wagering.

Futures can take months to settle in many cases, especially when they are placed well in advance of the start of the season.

Best NFL Futures Betting Sites 2021

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Best NFL Futures Bets

As mentioned above, the most popular markets that bettors will run into is:

Top NFL Futures Bets
  • Super Bowl Champion
  • AFC Champion
  • NFC Champion

Although, in the past few years, nearly every major NFL betting sites now also offers futures wagers on each NFL division.

This is a welcome addition to futures markets and makes for some interesting betting opportunities to make profitable bets.

How To Handicap Futures

There are some profitable wagers when it comes to betting  NFL futures, but bettors first need to learn how to handicap futures markets.

That involves calculating the juice of each bet in the market to figure out the implied probability. Futures markets are notoriously “juiced up” by many sportsbooks, so it’s vital that bettors break down the odds and line shop appropriately.

What Is A Futures Bet?

 

NFL Future Odds Explained

At first, every team in the AFC East is given odds to win the AFC East Champion. These are usually expressed using money line odds (aka American odds).

We’re going to use betting odds from Sportsbetting.ag on the 2019-20 winner AFC East Champion of the AFC East as an example.

Odds to Win AFC East

Team Odds
New England Patriots -160
Miami Dolphins +375
Buffalo Bills +425
New York Jets +1000

The above odds are listed for each team to win the division. Calculating the betting site’s vig on a futures market can be done using simple math. The first step is to divide our risk ($100 with moneyline odds) by our potential payout.

For the odds-on favorite, New England Patriots, we risk $100/$160 which equals .625 or 62.5%. The number on the right includes out $100 stake and a potential return of $60, which add up to $160.

Underdog Odds

The rest of the percentages are underdogs, so their chances of winning will be considerably smaller.

  • Dolphins 100/475 = 0.21 (21%)
  • Bills 100/525 = 0.19 (19%)
  • Jets 100/1100 = 0.09 (9%)

By adding these percentages together, we can figure out the sportsbook’s vigorish on this futures market. The math is simple addition: 62.5+ 21.0+ 19.0+ 9.0 = 111.50.

These percentages add up to 111.50%, which means the commission charged on this futures wagers is 11.5%.

Getting No-Vig

We can get true no-vig moneyline odds by dividing our above percentages by 111.50%:

  • Patriots 62.5/111.50 = 56.0%
  • Dolphins 21/111.50 = 18.8%
  • Bills 19/111.50 = 17%
  • Jets 9/111.50 = 9%

Added up, these numbers equal 100.8%, which makes sense since we rounded up several decimal points in our calculations.

True No-Vig Market

Using an implied probability calculator, we can convert these implied probability percentages into moneyline odds to give a true no-vig market.

Team Odds
Patriots -127
Dolphins +432
Bills +488
Jets +1011

We can see by our true odds that the Jets have the best odds relative to the sportsbook’s hold percentage (+1011 true odds versus +1000).

The above hold percentage of 11.50% is relatively fair in regards to NFL futures markets, it’s only slightly more than the standard 10% vig charged on a straight wager on sides and totals.

This isn’t always the case, however. Some online gambling sites have hold percentages that charge players between 20-30%.

Land-based Sportsbooks And Futures

Las Vegas Nevada Land-based Sportsbooks

Land-based sportsbooks in Las Vegas are generally much worse with these percentages charging bettors 40% or higher on some futures markets.

Bettors should almost always look to bet futures at trusted NFL betting sites, rather than land-based sportsbooks like those in Las Vegas or other states that have recently legalized betting.

The hold percentages on futures markets in those states are extremely high. It gets up to 30-40% in some cases, which is much higher than the 10-20% that you will find with most online betting sites.

NFL Futures Betting Tips

It’s important to keep in mind that just because the sportsbook’s hold on a futures’ market is better than another’s, it doesn’t mean that gamblers shouldn’t shop around for the best price on their wager.

Even if a market has a 40% or more hold, there can still be a better price available on a specific team compared to one with a lower vigorish. Generally, the less vig, the more potential for +EV wagers, but that isn’t always the case.

NFL Futures Market Characteristics

Future betting is a recreational-focused betting market, which means it caters much more to amateur bettors compared to higher-stake betting professionals.

The vast majority of people betting futures are amateur bettors who simply want to wager on their favorite teams. Limits are low and as described above, the vig can be quite high. Make sure to check our vig calculator to make sure you are not paying too much.

Some betting sites should be avoided altogether for NFL futures because their holds are simply outrageous compared to the rest of the market and are unbeatable.

NFL Futures Betting Strategy

With all that said, futures betting can be profitable with shopping and by avoiding high vig markets.

There are also a few areas that bettors may benefit from waiting to bet on a specific team or by hitting the market early. Future odds are updated throughout the season based on the performance of each team.

The oddsmakers don’t pay nearly as much attention to these markets as sides, totals, and NFL moneylines, so in some cases, they may be able to get a bet in before the market adjusts to a win or a loss.

NFL Futures Betting Strategy

Bettors may also have a team that they like to win the Super Bowl or specific division, but see a tough early-season schedule for the team where they may lose several games.

Though the long-term outlook in the bettor’s mind hasn’t changed regarding the franchise, the oddsmakers will adjust the odds to account for any losses with more generous odds.

However, the flip side here is that if they win these games then they are left with a worse price than the original odds.

Bet Hedging

If bettors take a team that is one game away from clinching a division title, Super Bowl, AFC, or NFC Championship appearance, they will also have the opportunity to hedge their bet and lock in a profit.

Bet-hedging should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and isn’t always a profitable move even if you’re locking in a profit. We don’t want to steer bettors away from futures altogether, but steering clear of markets with large vigorish is simply a smart betting strategy.

Where Is The Value?

There are definitely opportunities for value, but one main reason we caution novice bettors from betting too many long-term futures is that it ties up your bankroll for extended periods of time.

Low stakes bettors need all the money they can in the early stages and will be forced to bet less money on other +EV markets that are much more readily available while their money is tied up in futures.

Best NFL Futures Betting Sites

It’s tough to recommend a single betting site for NFL futures. Ultimately, the issue with futures is that vigorish can be high and that they tie up money for longer periods of time.

Some NFL betting sites may charge fewer fees, or vigorish, on their futures markets – bettors should evaluate each future bet individually. Do this by figuring out the sportsbook’s edge, like the example above.

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