Betting on the NFL Playoffs

After the marathon 17-week regular season, the fight for a Super Bowl title indeed gets started with the postseason. Betting on the NFL playoffs can be a different animal compared to the regular season, but there a few factors to consider that will put bettors on track to make profitable postseason wagers. NFL playoff betting and more specifically, the Super Bowl, makes up a significant portion of the overall betting handle for both Vegas and offshore sportsbooks.

NFL Playoff betting lines aren’t calculated any different than regular season betting lines, but there are some trends and strategy to consider when making NFL playoff betting picks. In this article, we’ll go over some of the most popular NFL playoff bets, strategies to employ, and a look at the current season’s playoff picture.

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NFL Playoffs Betting 2017-18

This season is one of the more competitive and wide-open campaigns we’ve had in the NFL.

The Patriots and Steelers look like favorites to get the first-round bye out of the AFC, but there are some dangerous teams are just starting to hit their stride. The Chargers seem poised to make the playoffs after starting 0-4. Baltimore’s offense has gotten going, and their defense is an elite unit. We also have the Jaguars, who have relied on shut down pass defense and a strong running game.

The Eagles are the cream of the crop in the NFC and have locked up a first-round bye mostly thanks to second-year, quarterback, Carson Wentz. The Vikings and Rams are right there with the Eagles, however. Then we have the usual suspects of the Seahawks, Saints, and Panthers. The NFC is as wide open as ever in this coming post season.

NFL Playoff Betting Lines and Odds

NFL playoff betting odds won’t change much from the regular season. However, in most cases, sportsbooks will have more betting options available, along with higher limits. This means there are more betting markets (more props) and getting more money down is considerably easier.

Prop Bets during the NFL Playoffs

NFL Playoff prop bets
NFL Propositions are amplified in the postseason, particularly when it comes to the Super Bowl. There will be more bets available and higher limits for NFL playoff prop bets compared to the regular season. Props are an excellent market to attack, especially for building a bankroll. However, betting props can lead to your account being limited a lot quicker than if you’re betting straight wagers.

Playoff Spread Betting

There’s no difference in playoff spread betting when it comes to how you attack betting markets and look for value. As mentioned above, betting limits are usually increased for the playoffs, making it easier to get down bigger bets.

With the playoffs being single elimination rounds, it is best if you follow our betting tips in order to make smart choices. Spread betting on the NFL playoffs can draw you into making rash wagers.

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Strategy for Betting the NFL Playoffs

General betting strategy for NFL football doesn’t change when it comes to the playoffs, but there are some considerations for postseason betting compared to the regular season. NFL playoff betting strategy can center on both betting market analysis and team study.

Betting Tip #1Prop-ertunity – Look for the Props!

Props are the least efficient markets, and the playoffs are an ideal time to bet them. As mentioned above, these may get you limited or banned from a book, especially if you’re max betting them, but limits will typically be higher in the postseason and Super Bowl. Props can be a gold mine for pay-per-head sites with local bookies. Limits are higher than offshore and getting limited or banned takes far longer.

Betting Tip #2Are the Dogs Overvalued?

One of the first things you learn as you look to become a profitable sports bettor is how underdogs and unders are usually preferable to favorites and overs. There are two main reasons for this:

  • The main one being the public’s infatuation with betting on “safe wagers”.
  • As well as wanting to see points scored.

Nevertheless, underdogs seem to get a bit more credit in the betting markets than they do in the regular season. Perhaps it’s a public betting action, some overzealous wagers from some sharp bettors, or the market giving too much credit to teams only because “they’re playoff teams”.

Betting Tip #3Divisional Favorites May Be More Profitable

With that said, divisional favorites, especially those with a first-round bye seem to be the most profitable regarding divisional round betting. Unless there is a severe mismatch between the two teams, it would make sense to look towards betting the favorite. The NFL season is long and an extra week of rest and hometown playoff crowd is a significant advantage, mainly when the team already has a better record and on-paper edge.

Betting Tip #4Don’t Forget About Bankroll Management – No Money, No Bets

Bettors make the mistake of betting too much when it comes to the postseason and the Super Bowl, which can have a severe effect on their overall profits. It’s true that edges, for many bettors, will increase throughout the season as they have more data, but that doesn’t mean they’re massively increasing their bet size. Don’t abandon bankroll management just because the games mean more now for the players. A win or loss is still the same for sports betting, whether it’s on a meaningless Week 17 or the NFL playoffs.

NFL Playoff Betting Picks and Analysis

For several reasons, we don’t advocate paying for picks, not just for the NFL playoffs, but for any form of sports betting, period. Almost all touts don’t keep records, grade them off stale numbers, or are outright liars and charlatans. We offer free NFL playoff picks on our free picks page and we will never charge a dime.

Should I Use NFL Playoff Betting Trends?

For the most part, no. There are some strategies outlined above that you can utilize, but when someone is telling you that “divisional favorites are 14-2 against the spread against when they are -10 or more” – that’s not advice that you can place a profitable wager with.

The data from even ten years ago has changed with the new rules regarding extra points and other factors. There are very rare cases that these trends make sense and are truly valid. Also, in those scenarios the market usually corrects itself rather quickly.