Among the top five leagues in Europe, the German league is the only league that averaged more than three goals in a game in the 2019/19 season—While most of the other leagues have their averages within the range of 2-3.
This is relevant for Bundesliga betting because it is difficult for the punters to decide if the game would have more or less than 2.5 goals, its likelihood gets a little easier when it comes to Bundesliga related bets.
Therefore, we’re here to equip you with all that necessary information you need to get your Bundesliga soccer betting game started or perhaps, level-it up.
More About Betting On The Bundesliga
Top Online Sportsbooks To Bet On The Bundesliga 2020
How does The Bundesliga Work?
There are 20 teams in the league and each team plays 38 games every season; the team with the highest number of points takes home the prestigious league trophy. If two teams end up with the same amount of points, the overall GD (Goal Difference) decides the winner.
The top division of German club football features 18 teams with every team facing the other 17 twice, home and away, making it a 34-game season for every club. Teams with the highest number of points are crowned champions.
If the two teams have an equal number of points, their Goal Difference (also called GD—what is GD in football?) is taken into consideration, and the team with superior GD wins the league.
Qualification For UCL And UEL In Bundesliga
In terms of European qualification, teams that finish in the top 4 spots of the league table qualify for the most prestigious club competition in Europe, termed as UEFA Champions League (UCL) for the seasons following the respective season.
The team finishing 5th qualifies for the Group Stage of the second most prestigious soccer club tournament in Europe, the UEFA Europa League (UEL). The 6th placed finisher qualifies for the 3rd round of the Europa League.
The winner of the DFB-Pokal, the Domestic Cup in Germany, also qualifies for the group phase of the Europa League regardless of their league position.
Relegation In Bundesliga
The Bundesliga’s relegation system is a little different from other leagues and rather fairer than them. How?
While there’s no mercy for the teams finishing at the last two spots on the table, the team being one spot shy of safety (16th place team on the table) gets another chance to fight for top division football.
In other words, the team finishing at the bottom two spots gets relegated straight away, and their spots are taken from the top two teams of the second division.
The team finishing 16th plays a two-legged tie (called a play-off) with the team finishing third in the second division. The winner of the tie takes up the remaining spot in the Bundesliga, and the loser starts the next season in the second division of the league.
How Do Promotions And Regulations Impact Games?
These qualifications spots have a profound impact on the results of the game and how the managers prioritize their squads according to their circumstances.
For example, it generally seems that the teams in the relegation zone in the second half of the season are less likely to make compromises in their matchday squad in terms of quality.
While on the contrary, big teams that are in advanced stages of UCL/UEL seldom field a weaker line-up in the league games to keep their top players fresh.
This sometimes results in weaker teams winning games against stronger teams, despite their previous head-to-head results and current form telling a different story. Managers could also give importance to their league campaign to participate in UEL or UCL in the next season.
Bundesliga Betting Tip
Before you jump onto the conclusion that the so-called favorites would easily win a given tie, make sure you’ve taken all the factors (which we’ll discuss later) including the aforementioned one.
Best Online sportsbooks To Bet On Bundesliga 2020
Choosing the best Bundesliga betting site is a key aspect when wagering on European soccer. You need to know if you will receive your winnings during the season.
MyBookie is our top recommendation when it comes to betting on soccer.
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Looking For More Top Sportsbooks? Check Out Our List Of The Best Sportsbooks To Bet On Soccer Page
How to place your bets in the Bundesliga?
So, it’s important to get the basics right because it’s a matter of your hard-earned cash. We’re here to guide you step-by-step (our mini-version of ELI5) through the process of placing a bet.
How To Bet Step #1Research And Find Out An Ideal Sportsbook
The art of finding the best soccer betting sites is to look upon some crucial factors that separate the mediocre from the elite. The most important of all is the reliability of the online sportsbook.
Sometimes users are deceived by the trickery of high rewards by unreliable platforms. Once you’re sure about the reliability, make a shortlist of all the sites that have rewards and functionality that is tailored to your expectations.
By comparing the offers, payments, and the best sports betting bonuses of your cherry-picked platforms, you can find your ideal match.
How To Bet Step #2Understand How The Football Betting Market Works
You might be a football fan for ages but if you’re a newbie in the market, your knowledge of football won’t really help you every time.
Your understanding of football changes when you see games from a gambler’s point of view and that’s why it’s best to check the water on the surface and then jump into the pool.
What Do We Mean By That?
Take your pen and paper out and place a few bets just for yourself. Not real bets for now, just make some predictions based on your knowledge and track your bets for a week or until you feel like you have a large enough sample size and understanding.
That’d give you a perspective or would reflect where you’re going wrong because in case of sports fans, emotions do come into play when it comes to prediction, and sadly, there’s no room for emotional bias in the soccer betting scene.
How To Bet Step #3Create A Budget And Add Funds To Your Account
The rule of thumb in the betting word is to develop a bankroll management plan. Make sure to have a specific amount set aside for betting and stick to a standard unit size when wagering on the Bundesliga or any other sport.
Different countries have different laws and options for depositing. Some of the most common ones are credit card deposits, Neteller, Skrill, but our recommendation would be to go with cryptocurrencies. Cryptos, such as Bitcoin, have a 100 percent acceptance rate and
How To Bet Step #4Let The Bets Roll!
Before we say anything, let’s establish the fact that once you’ve submitted your bet, you can’t take it back. So, make sure you’re that you are betting on the correct selection and the amount you bet is the same
Once you’re all set and ready to go, lock your bet and enjoy the game.
Bundesliga Betting Odds Explained
A Bundesliga game is filled with micro and macro events that can give people a great diversity of betting options. Like the bets could span from a mere corner count in a game to the early prediction for the team that’ll get relegated in the season.
Here’s a brief list of events you can place your bets on:
- Events related to a given game: Goals, Assists, Winners, losers, etc.
- Based on overall season awards: Winner of the golden boot, Golden Glove, Player of the season, Manager of the season, etc.
- Relegation, qualification, sacking, and appointments: Manager to be sacked next, teams to qualify for UCL and UEL, manager to be appointed, etc.
Given below is a brief of some of the most common bets that are available in the Bundesliga betting market:
Match outcome (1X2)
Three outcomes of every game, either of the teams winning or a draw. Punters wager on the outcome they think is likely.
In this type of bet, bettors are given a margin to decide if the number of goals would be over it or under it. The most commonly considered margin is 2.5 goals.
However, one interesting bit to notice is the average number of goals scored in Bundesliga games is over 3, so don’t be surprised if you find the margin to be 3.5 instead of 2.5 on a lot of platforms.
For example, a game between Schalke FC and Dortmund ends in a 3-1 win for Schalke, it’ll be considered an over 3.5 goals match.
The term handicap is used to create a 50-50% situation in a game that isn’t evenly matched. The weaker team is given a head-start. The Asian Handicap in soccer gives players a two-way market with a definitive outcome.
For example, in a game between Team A and Team B, Team A is given the head start of +1.5 goals and Team B is handicapped to -1.5.
If you bet on a Team B win, then Team B will have to win by a margin of two goals or more to win you the bet.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
It’s right there in the name. If both teams score, you win the bet. One of the most ideal scenario to place this bet would be betting on two teams that are more focused on their attack and even compromise their defensive stability for it.
The 2019-2020 Bundesliga Season
Bundesliga seasons have been a two-horse race in recent years, and FC Bayern undoubtedly has been the shiny horse that everybody likes to put their money on.
Although this was a close season and it showed how injuries and lousy form could change the fortune of the teams.
Bayern, who won the league title by two points in the last game of the season in a rather glorious fashion, weren’t really at the top spot for the first half of the season. Their performances were affected by injuries and their rivals, Borussia Dortmund took an early lead.
However, Dortmund’s team inexperience and lack of composure made them lose the title race post-January as they slowly faltered towards the end of the season.
RB Leipzig’s Performance
RB Leipzig showed an exiting promise as they have shown in recent years. Their spearhead, one of the brightest talents in Germany, scored 16 goals and also had seven assists in the season while his teammate Yussuf Poulsen also bagged 15 goals along with three assists.
Wolfsburg finally redeemed themselves by finishing sixth. The word redemption is being thrown because of their shocking season before it took them the playoffs to prove their worthiness for the top-flight football in Germany.
In the goal-scoring front, the usual suspect, Robert Lewandowski unsurprisingly became the highest goal scorer in the league with 22 goals for the 8th year in a row—let that sink in.
Betting On Bundesliga Teams
Brief overview of playing styles and characters of different teams:
Flick’s arrival has put a new life into FC Bayern. Their team is full of explosive attacking options, and their forwards run on the shoulders of the defenders, as you’d find their attackers in 3v3 or even 4v4 situations.
Bayern’s forwards usually draw wingers and sometimes center-backs with them to exploit spaces created at the flanks. The best part being this doesn’t come at the cost of dismantling their defensive structure.
They have the second-best defense in the league, and their dominance in the league isn’t going to go down soon, given they’re on an upward curve, and some of their rivals are likely to lose their key players.
Flick’s style of play would eventually flourish more (as it seems) and do keep an eye on this team’s attacking output.
Offensively, Dortmund is one of the scariest teams in Bundesliga. This has been especially true since the arrival of their frontman, Erling Braut Håland.
However, despite the promise BVB comes with offensively, their defense is yet to find the solidity it’s supposed to have.
So, to put it simply, their games are full of goals, and they usually involve goals on both sides of the pitch.
This is one of the most-liked teams among the Bundesliga fans and for the right reasons too. They’re blessed with talents like Sabitzer, Forsberg, Timo Werner, and Yussuf Poulsen.
It’s safe to say they have the best defense in the league, thanks to the partnership of the French duo, Dayot Upamecano, and Ibrahima Konate.
In 2018/19 seasons, they conceded a mere 29 goals (least in the league), and their keeper finished the season with 16 clean sheets, six more than FC Bayern’s Manuel Neuer.
Dortmund’s only problem is their midfield and lack of depth. A few injuries can hurt this team severely.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Naglesmann’s departure has hurt this team profoundly.
They’ve gone from being one of the best-attacking sides to a mediocre mid-table team that somewhat lacks the identity it had before.
They’re an exciting team to watch on a counter. But only when they’re the attacking team.
Leverkusen is not the best team defensively, but their strength lies in their attack with the likes of Volland, Bailey, and the glorious Kai Havertz running the show.
Havertz has been instrumental in its overall success in recent times. His departure (which seems likely) would make a severe impact on this team, depending upon how they reinvest the money into the squad.
This is one refreshing group to watch. This team oozes with confidence, and despite some significant departures lately, their shrewd reinvestment into young talents has paid its dividends.
The likes of Thuram and Plea keep their attack ticking while the midfield of Zakaria and Stindl provides a great deal of overall stability to their play.
Zakaria is one of the best defensive midfielders in Europe right now and is already being pursued by some of the biggest clubs in the world.
Mönchengladbach don’t have big names to present a glossy image of their defensive unit, but they’re still good enough not be called defensively fragile.
The only problem with this team is the lack of experience that reflects in their inconsistency—so keeping an eye on their form would be a wise call.
This is one of the teams that the bettors should be wary of wagering on or at least know what they are getting themselves into. It’s almost the same story for them every season.
They come with an awful lot of promise, and their inconsistency eventually waters down the excitement as the season progress.
For now, they do have some great talents at their disposal like Harit, Serdar, Raman, and when they’re on a hot form, you might want to fancy your chances with this team.
You may have heard a lot about Wolfsburg in the past but as their trajectory suggests, they’re not an elite team anymore. The Wolves saved themselves from relegation in a recent season as well.
Offensively, they’re not a team that scores more than two goals very often. They’re defensively solid, but their performances against big teams hasn’t been convincing on any front.
Another unpredictable team, and yet another team to be careful about.
They’re one of the recently promoted teams, and it’s difficult to say much about this team.
It’s important to mention them because they’re an exciting team at home—imagine being backed by 40,000+ passionate fans at your stadium. They play high risk, high reward free-flowing attacking football.
Which means their games as a whole usually involve a lot of goals. They’ve done brilliantly as a newly promoted team, and you can expect them to linger somewhere in the middle of the table or even above in the seasons to come.
Soccer Betting Odds
Bundesliga betting odds are commonly seen in three forms, Decimal Odds, Fractional Odds and American (also called Moneyline) Odds.
Decimal odds are one of the simplest odds to understand. These are commonly used in Europe, New Zealand, and Australia. Higher decimal odds mean higher returns and vice versa. The weaker team in the tie usually gets a high number as compared to the favorites.
Here’s the formula to calculate the returns:
Total return = Stake X Decimal Odd number
Let’s say the fixture is between Bayer Leverkusen and Augsburg, and the odds are as follows:
So, in this game, every $1 wagered on Augsburg would return $8 while on Leverkusen, it’ll return $4.
These odds are commonly used in the British betting market. As the name suggests, they’re in the form of fraction.
Odds in the form of ‘x/y’ are said to be “x-to-y” verbally, where x/y odds mean for every y dollars wagered, you’d get x dollars.
And the total winning return is the sum of the amount you wager plus the money you win from the bet.
For example, if you stake $5 at 3/1, you’d get $20 (15+5) in return.
American (Moneyline) odds
These odds are simple to understand. The odds reference the amount you need to bet to win $100.
The odds are usually listed in the form of ‘+’ or ‘- ‘, ahead of the number. The ‘+’ signifiying the under and the ‘-‘ signifying the favorite.
Usually in this form:
This means team x is the clear favourite in this tie.
In terms of calculation of the returns, (+) odds indicate the profit you’d make in every $100 wagered (in the above example, $800) and the (-) odds indicate the amount you’d have to wager to make a profit of $100 (in the above example, it would need $236).
How odds could change and early bids make a difference?
So as explained above bettors can also wager on events that are going to happen in future.
As the season progress, the odds of these long-term bids keep changing as per the teams’ performances. So, sometimes there’s an early chance to find value in the league.
Like if a team has lost a key player, or multiple players, or has had a change in the management, it could tempt people to think the team would not be at its very best.
In the case of a mid-table team, you could even talk relegation. While a wide majority of punters don’t do their homework right, if you keep an eagle eye on the odds on different platforms, you might find some early value in the league that would pay its dividend in the long run.
But this all boils down to your understanding of the game and how seriously you have followed the game. If you’ve started following football recently, it might not be the best idea to jump to a long term bid so soon.
Bundesliga Betting Stats Analysis
Stats play a huge part in the betting scene. They give you the insights that you might miss out on the games and equip you with useful data that can influence your betting decisions.
Although it’s important to process this data smartly, sometimes these stats could almost mislead you into ignoring something that might be more crucial. So gamblers need to know the amount and type of data that is tailored to the game/event that they are betting.
Ergo, given below are some essential points that you must keep in mind before you process stats:
Choosing the right sample size
Betting sites could offer you combined averages of different outcomes of the entire league that might not be very usable.
For example, the stat that most of the Bundesliga game finish with more than three goals in them doesn’t mean you see every game with the bias of that stat in mind. Sometimes it could be a matter of two evenly matched defensive-minded sides.
Sometimes different teams behave differently against specific opposition. So you might want to check out two teams’ records against each other at other. Moreover, the form also makes a big difference—we’ll go in details of this later.
Change in personnel
Sometimes teams go through big changes that either makes them or breaks them. Big signings and manager appointments could excite bettors to believe in a certain team and can do vice-versa.
Our recommendation in the case of a team going through a particular change would be to wait and observe how the team does as the season progresses.
On the statistical front, it’s essential to keep this in mind because a team playing under a new manager or with new players (or after a loss of a key player) could perform differently from its previous manager—which means the old stats might lose their significance to some degree.
Home and away
Some teams aren’t the best version of themselves when they play away from home. For example, Eintracht Frankfurt is a team with a reputation for being poor on the road. So, even if their form seems convincing to you, be aware of where they are playing in each matchup.
You can use the website SoccerStats and separately check the home and away tables to get a clearer vision of how teams are doing in both cases.
Some common soccer stats are:
- xG: Expected goals — Number of goals expected by a team in a game/season.
- GF: Goals for – Goals scored by a team.
- GA: Goals against – Goals scored against the team.
- GD: Goals difference – Goals scored subtracted by Goals against (GF-GA).
These parameters give you a fair idea about the end result of the offensive unit and defensive unit of the team.
A low value of GA would reflect a team’s defensive solidity while GF would tell how good they are when it comes to attacking. GD would give you an idea of how good its overall impact in a game might be.
For example, teams with low values or negative values of GD reflect that regardless of how good they might be on the offensive side, their defense isn’t helping their game (could be proven helpful in betting on clean sheets).
xG The More Interesting One
xG shows a team’s creative abilities. This could prove fruitful at the beginning of the season. There could be a case of a team that has a high xG but low GF. Which means the team is capable of creating chances, they’re not good at the utilization of those chances.
But being clinical in the final third is something that can change, so even a team with a low goal-scoring record can surprise you with a flurry of goals in a game if it has a high value of xG.
On the contrary, it can also give you signs of a team over-performing offensively if their GF is more than their xG.
Where do we find these detailed stats?
We have two recommendations, Fbref and Understat. and both of the website offer users different options to these stats.
Fbref has a more detailed database while Understat is a lot simpler with limited stats available. You can use both of them accordingly. Understat also offers the nature of the goals a team scores and concedes like goals conceded on free-kicks, penalties, set-pieces, etc.
Purple patch and slump in the forms are a real phenomenon in the world of football. For example, if we go back to the last season and notice how Bayern picked up themselves from December and Dortmund started faltering, you can sense the impact of good and bad form.