NFL Win Totals Betting
NFL win totals are a type of bet that centers on a team’s victories for each season.
Due to the league’s popularity, the NFL’s season win totals have become one of the fans’ favorite in recent years, and there is no stopping it.
If you live and breathe football all year, why not take this knowledge and translate this into betting profits?
Everything About NFL Win Totals
Best NFL Win Totals Betting Sites 2021
Long Term NFL Prop Bets
Win totals prop bets may not be of interest to many recreational football bettors because of the extended period that money is tied up.
However, ignoring these markets completely is a big mistake. There is plenty to win betting over/under season win totals, particularly if you follow football extensively.
NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals 2021
Most sportsbooks add these futures bets taking into account everything that happened during the previous season, free agency, and the NFL Draft.
We update the Over/Under betting odds for the NFL season win totals after each Super Bowl.
Take a look at the latest NFL Season Over/Under win totals:
|NFL Team||Win Total||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Green Bay Packers||10.5||-143||+118|
|Kansas City Chiefs||12||-121||+100|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7||-110||-110|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9||-110||-110|
|Los Angeles Rams||10.5||+123||-150|
|New England Patriots||9||-134||+110|
|New Orleans Saints||9||-110||-110|
|New York Giants||7||-125||+103|
|New York Jets||6.5||+133||-162|
|San Francisco 49ers||10.5||+123||-150|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7||-125||+103|
|Washington Footbal Team||8||-139||+115|
How to Bet on NFL Win Totals
Finding NFL season win totals betting markets at an online sportsbook is simple. They will be listed under NFL or football markets. They may also be listed under futures, but are usually under their own page or category.
Once there, adding wagers to your bet slip is just like any other wager. Click the market you want to bet on, choose the amount you want to bet, then submit your wager.
Below you can find an example of how to bet on NFL Season Win Totals.
- Pittsburgh Steelers 9.0 Wins
- Over (-110)
- Under (-110)
Bettors can wager on the over and under on Pittsburgh’s wins, which includes the 16-game regular season only (it doesn’t include playoffs).
Just like any line without a hook (half-point), these wagers can push.
If the Steelers win exactly 9 games, all stakes will be returned and the wager will be graded as a push.
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Read Our Complete Review Of The Best NFL Betting Sites
NFL Season Win Totals Betting Strategy
Bettors can look at a number of factors to determine season win totals.
As we mention in almost all our articles regarding futures or props, line shopping is an absolute must.
Also, it’s important to keep in mind that most NFL betting sites may not differ in terms of total wins, but attached juice is a whole other story.
In the above example, both the over and under have attached -110 standard juice. In many cases, perhaps the majority of the time, this is not the case.
The oddsmakers won’t often move the win total after they post the number, but they will consistently adjust the attached juice based on betting action.
It’s vital to realize how much more you’re paying on a bet when you wager with -110 odds compared to -140.
There’s definitely going to be situations where an over will be priced at -140 and the under at +110. Bettors need to realize this is the same as moving the line but without “moving the line.”
Pro Tip #1 Evaluate The Strength of The Schedule
The strength of the NFL game schedule can be tough to gauge, particularly in the NFL where there are so many coaching changes each year, but it’s certainly something that the bettor should take a look at when evaluating season win totals.
How their division as a whole stacks up should be the most important factor. Many NFL teams will simply have a much easier path to wins because of the poor teams in their division.
Remember, each team plays their divisional opponents twice, which amounts to six games of the 17-game season. That’s a large portion of the schedule.
Lookout for Ambiguities with Strength of Schedule
However, there’s plenty of data that suggests evaluating a team’s season based on strength of schedule can be heavily misleading. There’s so much turnover each year, between coaches and personnel that it makes assessing the strength of schedule much harder.
If a team truly looks like they have a cupcake schedule, with offseason changes factored into your reasoning, it’s probably worth giving them a slight bump.
Overall though, we tend to agree that this is a factor that sports bettors weigh too heavily.
We’re all for assessing mid-season matchups, but long-term data suggests preseason evaluations of the strength of schedule can be heavily misleading.
Pro Tip #2 Gauge Public Perception
Season win totals are like many other props and futures. They’re more for the betting masses compared to high volume sports bettors. They have much lower betting limits than sides and totals.
That doesn’t mean they’re not a profitable market to attack, in fact, it’s quite the contrary. However, public perception is going to factor in with these markets more than others.
There’s certainly some value being contrarian and going against the grain when it comes to teams that the public is high on and those that they don’t seem to like.
There are teams that the masses seem to love every year and those that emerge with a new bandwagon of fans based on offseason coaching more than player acquisitions.
Going with the public opinion is perfectly fine, but realize that the value you may be getting on your wager probably won’t be as strong compared to if you went the contrarian route.
Remember, the masses lose a lot of money betting sports and betting with them consistently is a losing proposition.
Pro Tip #3 Assess The NFL Roster Depth
One of the aspects many completely forgo when evaluating teams is their depth. The NFL is the most brutal of all sports leagues. There can and will be, tons of injuries that teams will have to adjust to throughout the season.
It’s easy to look at a team’s starting roster and draw conclusions from that, but roster depth is vital for success in an NFL season. How would a team deal with an injury to their starting quarterback?
Do their offensive and defensive systems depend more on talent or scheme? How is their depth on defense? This is when analyzing the NFL injury report becomes a handy tool.
These are all questions you need to ask yourself. The “next man up” mentality isn’t just a colloquial saying used by NFL coaches that lack substance – it’s the reality of the league today.
Depth is absolutely vital, injuries will happen and how a team adjusts is paramount to their success over a long and punishing season.
Pro Tip #4 Analyze Personnel & Coaching
Ultimately, this is going to be the nitty-gritty of your analysis. Even if teams do little in terms of personnel and coaching changes, there are still plenty of other aspects to consider.
It should also be noted that teams who have little turnover on their roster are still are going to make plenty of moves in regards to depth and lesser-known players. Age should also be a consideration.
Rosters that get up there in age have continually shown a decline in recent years. One of the best resources on our site for evaluating players and talent is our advanced NFL statistics page.
There are tons of advanced stats on that page that help bettors go behind win and loss totals and other traditional NFL stats or rankings.
The talent evaluation, specifically, at Pro Football Focus is second to none.
Pro Tip #5 Manage Your NFL Betting Bankroll
NFL Season long win totals, like other NFL futures bets, are undoubtedly markets where bettors can get plenty of +EV or profitable betting action.
They’re probably better than most futures in regards to vig but the bankroll considerations for bettors should be the same.
Season-long win totals will tie up money that could be used for other bets throughout the season, so it’s vital for bettors to gauge if this tradeoff is worth it if their season-long bankroll would be significantly decreased.
As you become a better sports bettor and your bankroll grows larger, this won’t be as much of a factor.