NFL Season Win Totals
Season win totals have now become a common market for just about every major sport besides hockey in US betting markets. Due to the league’s popularity, the NFL’s season win totals have become extremely popular in recent years. These are right up there with futures when it comes to wagering action before the season starts.
Similar to futures, these long-term prop bets may not interest many football bettors because of the extended period that money is tied up with these bets. However, ignoring these markets completely is a big mistake. There is plenty to be found betting season win totals, particularly if you follow the NFL and are a huge fan of the league. If you live and breathe football all year, why not take this knowledge and translate it into betting profits.
Example Of NFL Season Total Wins
Season win totals are basically just betting totals or over/unders that center on a team’s victories for each season.
- Pittsburgh Steelers 9.0 Wins
- Over (-110)
- Under (-110)
Bettors can wager on the over and under on Pittsburgh’s wins, which includes the 16-game regular season only and don’t include playoffs. Just like any line without a hook (half-point), these wagers can push. If the Steelers win exactly 9 games, all stakes will be returned and the wager will be graded as a push.
Best NFL Betting Sites 2018
NFL Season Win Totals Strategy
Bettors can look at a number of factors to determine season win totals. As we mention in almost all our articles regarding futures or props, line shopping is an absolute must. Also, it’s important to keep in mind that most sportsbooks may not differ in terms of total wins, but attached juice is a whole other story.
In the above example, both the under and over have attached -110 standard juice. In many cases, perhaps the majority of time this is not the case. The oddsmakers won’t often move the win total after they post the number, but they will consistently adjust the attached juice based on betting action.
It’s vital to realize how much more you’re paying on a bet when you wager with -110 odds compared to paying -140. There’s definitely going to be situations where an over will be priced at -140 and the under at +110. Bettors need to realize this is the same as moving the line, but without “moving the line.”
Strength of Schedule
The strength of schedule can be tough to gauge, particularly in the NFL where there are so many coaching changes each year, but it’s certainly something that bettor should take a look at when evaluating season win totals.
How their division as a whole stacks should be the most important factor. Many teams will simply have a much easier path to win because of the poor teams in their division. Remember, each team plays their divisional opponents twice, which amounts to six games of the 16-game season. That’s a whopping 37.5% of the schedule right there.
However, there’s plenty of data that suggests evaluating a team’s season based on strength of schedule can be heavily misleading. There’s so much turnover each year, between coaches and personnel that it makes assessing the strength of schedule much harder.
If a team truly looks like they have a cupcake schedule, with offseason changes factored into your reasoning, it’s probably worth giving them a slight bump. Overall though, we tend to agree that this is a factor that sports bettors weigh too heavily. We’re all for assessing mid-season matchups, but long-term data suggests preseason evaluations of the strength of schedule can be heavily misleading.
Season win totals are like many other props and futures. They’re more for the betting masses compared to high volume sports bettors. They have much lower betting limits than sides and totals. That doesn’t mean they’re not a profitable market to attack, in fact, it’s quite the contrary. However, public perception is going factor in with these markets more than others.
There’s certainly some value being contrarian and going against the grain when it comes to teams that the public is high on and those that they don’t seem to like. There are teams that the masses seem to love every year and those that emerge with a new bandwagon of fans based on offseason coaching more of player acquisitions.
Going with the public opinion is perfectly fine, but realize that the value you may be getting on your wager probably won’t be as strong compared to if you went the contrarian route. Remember, the masses lose a lot of money betting sports and betting with them consistently is a losing proposition.
NFL Roster Depth
One of the aspects many completely forgo when evaluating teams is their depth. The NFL is the most brutal of all sports. There can and will be, tons of injuries that teams will have to adjust to throughout the season. It’s easy to look at a team’s starting roster and draw conclusions from that, but roster depth is vital for success in an NFL season.
How would a team deal with an injury to their starting quarterback? Do their offensive and defensive systems depend more on talent or scheme? How is their depth on defense? These are all questions you need to ask yourself.
The “next man up” mentality isn’t just a colloquial saying used by NFL coaches that lacks substance – it’s the reality of the league today. Depth is absolutely vital, injuries will happen and how a team adjusts is paramount to their success over a long and punishing season.
Analyzing Personnel and Coaching
Ultimately, this is going to be the nitty-gritty of your analysis. Even if teams do little in terms of personnel and coaching changes, there are still plenty of other aspects to consider.
It should also be noted that teams who have little turnover on their roster are still are going to make plenty of moves in regards to depth and lesser-known players. Age should also be a consideration. Rosters that get up there in age have continually shown decline in recent years.
One of the best resources on our site for evaluating players and talent is our advanced NFL statistics page. There are tons of advanced stats on that page that help bettors go behind win and loss totals and other traditional NFL stats or rankings. The talent evaluation, specifically, at Pro Football Focus is second to none.
Season-long win totals, like other NFL futures, are undoubtedly markets where bettors can get plenty of +EV action. They’re probably better than most futures in regards to vig, but the bankroll considerations for bettors should be the same.
Season-long win totals will tie up money that could be used for bets throughout the season, so it’s vital for bettors to gauge if this tradeoff is worth it if their season-long bankroll would be significantly decreased. As you become a better sports bettor and your bankroll grows larger, this won’t be as much of a factor.
Best NFL Betting Sites for Season Total Wins
Season-long win totals are about line shopping more than anything else. There isn’t a betting site that beats the others in this area because each bet depends on where you can find the best price. When having your money tied up for several months (end of the season), it’s vital to have a reputable sportsbook with history in the industry.
Safe and Reliable Bets at Bovada and BetOnline
Bovada and BetOnline are our two recommended sites for betting on the NFL that are reliable and reputable to use the NFL season win totals odds strategy.
Both sites offer season win totals, plus a host of other NFL-centric markets.