Tony Ferguson Vs. Justin Gaethje UFC 249 Betting Odds & Prediction

Tony Ferguson Vs. Justin Gaethje Free UFC 249 Betting Odds & Prediction

*Important Update: UFC 249 is confirmed to take place on May 9 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL.*

Here we are again, what fighting fans feared the most became a reality. Khabib Nurmagomedov is locked down in Russia and won’t be part of the main event in UFC 249 on April 18. 

However, there’s no time to feel bad about it. The show must go on, and UFC 249 comes back loaded with action in an undisclosed location.

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson meets with Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje in a battle for the lightweight interim title in a night that might be just what we need in these tough times.

Ferguson and Gaethje are two of the most aggressive pressure fighters in the promotion. Ferguson vs. Gaethje is an exciting matchup for MMA fans and bettors. Let’s take a look at the odds.

What The Odds Say About Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje

Ferguson Vs. Gaethje Odds To Win
Tony Ferguson -170 MyBookie Sportsbook
Justin Gaethje +140

Tony Ferguson went from a +250 underdog against Khabib Nurmagomedov to being the favorite over Justin Gaethje. Ferguson is now -170 at to defeat Gaethje, who is a +140 underdog.

While this is a matchup of two great fighters, Ferguson is still a noticeable favorite. He stands at -170 to win by any means, which is a reasonable price for El Cucuy considering how talented he is in every aspect of the game.

On the other side, we have Justin Gaethje at +140 as the underdog. Justin took this fight on short notice. That factor is something that might impact his performance. I think +140 an accurate price by the oddsmakers.

Tony is dominant and aggressive in the pocket or on the ground with his opponents and I can see why they have him as the favorite in this one at -170.  

Justin Gaethje’s Edge Over Ferguson

Don’t let the odds fool you if you’re a casual UFC fan. Yes, Justin Gaethje is the underdog. But he is a world-class fighter and a serious title contender. 

He’s better known for his pressure style, vicious leg kicks, and punches in the pocket. However, he also has a solid NCAA D1 wrestling background and a relentless attitude to win. 

Gaethje has 21 wins and two losses in his career. 18 of those 21 wins came by KO. If he manages to win this fight, most likely, it will be a short one.

With legit victories against UFC top talent like Edson Barboza and Cowboy Cerrone –Justin isn’t a fighter to take lightly. Justin Gaethje is a challenging fight for Tony Ferguson. 

People underestimate his ground game. I wouldn’t say he’s a submission artist, but his ground and pound are destructive enough to make it a worry for opponents when they are grappling him. 

Justin Gaethje’s Cardio

Where I see him behind Tony Ferguson is in terms of cardio. Tony is a cardio freak, and I’m not certain Gaethje can follow up with the pace Ferguson brings to the game. Especially with him coming to fight on short notice.

I do imagine Gaethje applying pressure from the beginning and looking for that early knockout. I’m sure he knows that getting deep into a fight with Ferguson is not an ideal strategy. 

Tony Ferguson’s Edge Over Gaethje

Tony Ferguson is the textbook definition of a mixed martial artist. He dominates at every single aspect of the game. It’s as if he was born for MMA.

Ferguson is on a 12-win streak and has a record of 25 wins and three losses. The last time we saw him in the Octagon was facing Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. 

The fight got stopped by the doctor at the end of the second round. But Ferguson had a fantastic performance that night.

On his feet, his movements are unorthodox and fluid, with attacks coming in all directions. He also brings a world-class 10th planet approved ground game. He is UFC’s D’arce choke master.

Tony’s fights tend to be bloodbaths. His elbows and unparalleled ability to put pressure on his opponents often end with him cutting open the face of other fighters.

Mix that with Gaethje’s pressure, and we have the perfect recipe for a great fight. These guys are ready to exchange, and this is a war.

Tony Ferguson is the most versatile fighter Gaethje has ever faced. His advantage will be his “survival” mentality as well as his cardio, and strong ground game.

Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje UFC 249 Betting Prediction

Gaethje’s gameplan is simple. Pressure plus aggression equals KO. We have seen this approach work for him several times. 

However, this also was the formula that opened the door for his two losses against Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez.

Justin is going all-in for that early knockout, and if Ferguson can survive the storm, Gaethje’s cardio won’t be there. Considering he takes this fight in short notice, and that we’ve seen him suffer when the fight goes to distance, this isn’t a crazy idea.

Both fighters love to exchange, and both are incredible strikers. The defining factor here is experience and outstanding cardio, which Tony Ferguson oozes. 

Overall, Ferguson has a complete set of weapons in his arsenal to take the interim title. I think he will take this one home. It won’t be easy. He will be facing Khabib in August or September on the new UFC fight Island. 

Take Tony Ferguson to win by any means at -170.

Our Ferguson Vs. Gaethje UFC 249 Pick:

Bet Ferguson -170 At MyBookie

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Gustavo Santiago

Gustavo Santiago - MMA Analyst & Writer

Gustavo is a dedicated mixed martial artist, UFC die-hard fan, and bettor. He’s responsible for our MMA fight breakdowns and UFC picks here at SBS while he’s taking a break from his Muay Thai, Boxing, Wrestling or Bjj training. He is the SBS’ king of Mixed Martial Arts.

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