UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Betting Odds & Predictions

UFC 264 Betting Odds And Predictions

One of the biggest UFC events of the year is upon us with UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3.

So far, Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor and Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier have split their two previous fights, with McGregor getting the win in the first bout and Poirier notching the victory in the second.

This event is jammed packed with talent, including an action-packed undercard.

We will break down UFC 264 betting odds for the main event and give you our picks to win, along with the other massive fight on the card between Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson. Let’s dive in!

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When And How To Watch UFC 264

The fight will take place on July 10th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada.

The undercard will begin at 7 PM on ESPN, with the main card starting at 10 PM EST. Most likely the main event will begin around 12 AM EST.

The preliminary card will be free and available on ESPN. The main card will be shown on ESPN+ and will have a price tag of $69.99.

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Betting Odds

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor Odds To Win
Dustin Poirier-125 BetUS UFC Sportsbook
Conor McGregor-105

The odds for this fight have been close to even since the fight was announced, but Poirier has pulled ahead at some sportsbooks, including BetUS.

Dustin Poirier is now a -125 favorite over Conor Mcgregor at -105.

The oddsmakers expect this one to last at least one round. You can find betting odds for the over 1.5 rounds at -175 and the under 1.5 rounds listed at +145.

Check our UFC over under betting guide for more information on this type of bet.

The history between these two

These two rivals met first in 2014, where McGregor scored a TKO on Poirier in the first round. The win started a rapid rise for ‘Notorious’ who became a household name, even outside of the UFC for his talent and out-of-the-ring exploits.

The two met a whopping 7 years later in January of this year. This time, the fight went in favor of ‘The Diamond’ Poirier. He withstood McGregor’s onslaught in the first round and got a KO victory of his own in the second round.

What is different in the trilogy?

Well, it’s hard to say too much will change between these two fighters. Remember, they fought nearly six months ago.

Dustin has to feel good about his plan of attack in the last fight, he beat up Conor’s legs with ease, and then a barrage of punches in the second round won the fight for him.

However, we can’t forget that Poirier did look to be in trouble in the first round.

Conor was flirting with a first-round KO, something he has done in 14 out of 19 of his KO victories. Dustin weathered the storm and then got his opportunity in the second round.

It’s still crazy to me watching his knockout of McGregor. After the first round, most had to be thinking that McGregor would win this fight. I mean, he WAS WINNING the fight after the first round.

But, somehow, this fight went from 0 to 100 MPH in a hurry. Dustin landed some majestic shots with his fists, and that flurry had Conor laying on the canvas shortly after.

Poirier vs McGregor 3 Prediction – Who Will Win?

McGregor vs Poirier 3 Betting Prediction

Will things play out the same way? I, for one, don’t think so. McGregor closed as a massive favorite in betting markets against Poirier, somewhere around the -290 number.

I know he lost the first fight, but we are getting quite a discount if we think the first fight was close and could have gone either way.

I believe that was the case.

McGregor had Poirier on his heels in the first round and he somehow busted out a combination for the ages on Conor.

Yes, Conor was slower in his movement from all the leg kicks, but I still found his knockout hard to believe. Dare I say, it was a fluke.

What I See Happening In This Fight?

We have to assume that that Notorious will be more aware of Dustin’s plan in this fight and will be sure not to get his legs hacked to pieces early in the fight. 

Either way, I do believe that McGregor is simply the better fighter.

I see this market overreacting quite a bit to what I think was a bit of a stroke of luck for Poirier. 

We’re getting a Conor McGregor at -105 odds when he closed close to -300 against the same opponent six months ago.

I cannot ignore this value with one of the best fighters in UFC history. 

My Pick: Bet on Conor McGregor to Win -105.

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Prop Bets

BetUS has a boatload of MMA proposition bets for the main event between McGregor and Poirier and the other fights. Check them out and see if you can find any value.

Poirier vs. McGregor UFC 264 Prop Bets
Poirier To Win By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission+140
Poirier To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision+550
McGregor To Win By KO, TKO, DQ or Submission+130
McGregor To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision+700

Personally, I like McGregor by TKO, KO, DQ, or Submission at +130.

UFC 264: Burns vs Thompson Betting Odds And Prediction

There is another fight on this card that is making headlines. Gilbert Burns takes on Stephen Thompson in a welterweight bout.

Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Odds To Win
Gilbert Burns+130 BetUS UFC Sportsbook
Stephen Thompson-160

Thompson is the favorite at -160, but I think there is a lot of value with the dog in this fight with Burns at +130.

Thompson has won two fights in a row and will be seeking a title shot against Kamaru Usman if he should win this fight. Burns knows Usman well, he was defeated in his last fight by the champion by knockout in the third round.

burns vs thompson: Who will win at ufc 264?

Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Betting Prediction

I have no doubt Thompson is an impressive fighter, but there is simply too much value with Gilbert Burns in this spot.

Yes, he did lose to Usman but his track record is impressive. He had won five straight fights before losing to Usman in February.

Thompson has an impressive record at 16-4, but Burns has also been mostly flawless at 19-4 except against top-tier competition.

I do not feel that Thompson should be this large of a favorite and I suspect we will see a much shorter price as we get closer to fight night.

My Pick: Bet on Gilbert Burns to win at +130.

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Don’t Miss Our Complete UFC Betting Guide

Joseph Falchetti

Joseph Falchetti - Editor-in-Chief / Sports Writer & Analyst

Joe is the author of the blog, most picks, and the majority of excellent sports and casino content on SafestBettingSites. He's been mentioned on Forbes.com as a gaming analyst, and his articles have been linked by larger publications, such as the New York Times.

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