NFL Power Rankings 2024

1. Create a Basic Power Rankings

For instance, let’s say we rated each team based on their ability on a numeric scale. In this NFL ranking system, let’s say the best team would be rated as a 10 and the worst team a 1. Sure, this is simplistic, but it’s the simplest form creating your rankings before moving on into more advanced stuff.

The New England Patriots, coming off one of their elite seasons, we decide to rate as a 9 to start the year. The Cleveland Browns, a team that seems to be perpetually rebuilding, might be rated as a 1.

Using our extremely basic grading system, we see that the Patriots have an 8 point (9 – 1 = 8) advantage over the Browns. New England also happens to be playing at home, which is traditionally worth three points in the minds of the sportsbooks.

Our rudimentary power ranking system here tells us that the Patriots should be favored by 8 points on a neutral field, but 11 points with their home-field advantage.

Of course, this is a highly basic form of power rankings, but making it more advanced is simple. We can assign values for defense, offense, coaching, special teams and other categories, including advanced statistics.

2. Defense, Offense, and Coaching

Let’s start with defense, offense, and coaching. Our rating for New England, in this case, might be a 7 for defense, 8 for offense and a 10 for coaching.

Love him or hate him, there is no doubt Bill Belichick is the best coach in the league. And for the Browns, well, they’re at the bottom of the barrel offensively, but their defense has been better in recent years.

We will give them a 3 for offense, 7 for defense, and a 3 for coaching.

3. How To Calculate NFL Power Rankings

Our NFL power ratings for the Patriots add up to 25 (7+8+10 = 25). The numbers for the Browns add up to 13 (7+3+3= 13). We can get our advantage by subtracting the team with the lower rating by the team with the higher rating.

In this case, it’s 13. Add in our three-point home-field advantage and the Patriots are rather large 16 point favorites according to our power rankings. We can then compare our own set of odds versus the sportsbook’s odds to find advantages.

4. Advancing Your NFL Power Ranking Model

The above “formula” for power rankings could be utilized, but we suggest some more fine-tuning and categories. Assigning letters grades for each aspect of a team and then having those letter grades be worth a numeric value is another route.

Utilizing more advanced NFL statistics is another consideration. Your power rankings will need to be adjusted each week based on the performances of each team as well.

This can add up to be a lot of work, but if you build a model that is strong, it could offer you an advantage, particularly when it comes to opening odds.

The other option is to let the larger publications do most of the work for you. For instance, you might take ESPN’s and USA Today’s power rankings and create a rating system that gives you the aggregate score.