NCAA Football Totals Betting

Betting College Football Totals (Or Over/Under Betting)

NCAA college football totals bets (or over/under bets) are wagers on whether the combined score of a matchup will be over or under the number set by the oddsmaker.

In NCAAF matchups, the total score is generally much higher than in professional games.

The average total score in the NFL is just over 41 points and there are the occasional games that get above 55. Few reach the 60-point plateau.

This is a mark that dozens of games reach every Saturday in NCAA football. There are games with points in the 70s every week and some as high as the low to mid-80s occasionally.

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Most Common Point Totals In College Football

The average listed total by the betting sites for NCAAF is just above 48 points. And with a shift towards offense, these numbers continue to rise year after year. 

Check out this table with the most frequent point totals in college matchups:

Points Total Percentage of Games
45 2.97%
41 2.95%
52 2.88%
44 2.82%
51 2.80%
48 2.77%
55 2.75%
37 2.66%
59 2.53%
38 2.42%
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Over/Under Bets: The Most Attractive Market For Savvy Bettors

Many amateur bettors write off totals altogether, instead opting to bet points spreads, mostly for entertainment reasons. This is a big mistake.

Betting sites are much weaker when it comes to over/under bets, particularly for college sports. Just about every professional team is written about and covered extensively. This is because they are simply more fans surrounding professional teams and they predominantly exist in larger markets.

The increase in popularity among fans turns into more dollars wagered on professional sports compared to the college game, at least for the most part.

Since larger amounts of money are wagered on professional sports, (aside from March Madness) these markets will be more heavily focused on by the oddsmakers.

To learn more about college football betting, visit our NCAA Football Betting Guide.

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College Football Totals Betting Strategy

Betting Strat #1Lean Towards Unders

Lean towards unders when betting on totals.

As we discuss in several articles here at SafestBettingSites, the betting public tends to favor wagering on favorites and overs. This is true for just about every market.

The sports media glamorizes offense, and that is where the money usually goes when it comes from the sports betting masses.

It’s true that totals have increased in the past few years, but that doesn’t mean that betting the under has become a worse wager.

The increase in points has clearly been appropriately adjusted by the college betting sites.

Bettors can do themselves a favor if they take a look at the board and look for spots to bet under rather than over, provided they find an excellent price via line shopping, of course.

There’s generally going to be more value with unders. However, this doesn’t mean you should take a bad line simply because you want to avoid betting the over.

Betting Strat #2Take Into Account Injury Factors & Matchups

Consider injury factors and matchups when betting totals

One of the ways bettors can get an edge evaluating over/under bets is by considering injury factors.

Especially late in the season, each team is dealing with a fair number of injuries, some more notable than others.

Star players or key positions will get most of the ink in sports media circles, but it’s the lesser-known guys who will be forced into action that may ultimately make the difference in how many points are scored.

How teams respond to injuries not only affects their status as a favorite or an underdog, but their ability to score points or stop their opponent is directly related to the total as well.

Predicting How The Game Will Play Out

Predicting how changes to offense or defense might affect game flow will give you a much better barometer of how a game might play out.

With closely matched teams, a play or two here or there may end up being the difference via the point spread, but if you can figure old how a game will be from a tempo perspective you may be able to comfortably predict the outcome regardless of a victory.

There’s no substitute for knowledge when it comes to evaluating games.

Some teams can run the offense with close to the same precision even with their starting quarterback sidelined. Others may be based on several key players and, without them, the offense will struggle.

Dive into college football or focus on a specific conference and you may be more knowledgeable than the sportsbooks in some spots. This is especially true if you develop a profitable betting model like power ranking in NFL.

Betting Strat #3Consider Coaching Motivations

Consider coaching motivations when betting on totals.

It’s ultimately up to the coaches in regards to how hard a team presses once it gets a lead. This is especially true for teams that may be massive favorites over their opponents.

If you have a college football coach that is eager to run up the score, even once the backups enter the game, that’s a factor to consider when betting the total.

On the flip side, if the game gets out of hand, other coaches may opt to run out the clock by simply running the ball.

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