Unranked Home Favorite Strategy

One of the oldest and most commonly cited betting systems in all of sports betting is the college basketball unranked home favorite versus a ranked road-team underdog strategy. This system is one that many bettors swear by when it comes to NCAA college basketball betting systems.

There’s no formula or other factors involved with using this “betting system”. In fact, it shouldn’t even be called a betting system because it’s so simple. Bettors simply take a home team that is an underdog against a ranked team on the road. When we speak of rank, we’re talking in the Associated Press’s Top 25 teams. Matchups like this won’t be available every night, but they do appear on a weekly or bi-weekly basis with some regularity. Understanding why this system might offer an advantage to bettors should be obvious.

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Home Court Advantage

ncaab bettingAs discussed in other articles, the home-court advantage in college basketball is likely more powerful than any other sport. For one, a large percentage of their fans are students, who make the atmosphere much tougher on opposing teams through non-stop cheering and jeering of opponents.

Secondly, the coaches, crowd and players live for these types of games. They’re often on national television and give the home team extra motivation to take care of the ranked team on their home floor. Despite being favored by the oddsmakers, the atmosphere is that of an underdog.

Does The Unranked Favorite vs Ranked Betting System Work?

A forum thread at Cappersmall.com detailed a similar system in action. The results were extremely impressive. In the 2012-13 season, the system hit just 21-19 with favorite, but in 2013-14 season, these home favorites facing underdogs hit 19-8 good for 70% winning percentage. The poster in this thread bet all unranked teams, regardless if they were favored, when they faced a ranked opponent at home as well. That worked out to 85-50 overall record for the 2012-13 season.

They also started this system in January, a key period of conference play for teams looking to make a statement. Double-digit spreads were also not wagered and teams with no home-court advantage were not targeted.

Basketball Betting System – In Summary

As you can see, it’s not quite as simple as betting the unranked home favorite against the ranked road underdog. There are many other aspects bettors should consider before placing their wager.

However, the unranked home underdog versus a ranked team has shown to have considerable value over a long period of time. Unfortunately, this only accounts for maybe 20-30 bets per season, but those are still two dozen or more +EV wagers that you can make every year without any work or handicapping prowess.